Home > Uncategorized > A No Deal Exit from the EU without a General Election and working majority may be the quickest way to Brexit failure and to taking us straight back in

A No Deal Exit from the EU without a General Election and working majority may be the quickest way to Brexit failure and to taking us straight back in

StupidityI am not quite ready to backtrack on my feeling that Boris is the best option available from the Tory Leadership Candidates on offer so far. But it has to be said that his first shots of the campaign have been fired straight into the dark.

Yes, the suggestion that he would oversee a No Deal exit if nothing else is in offer on the 31st of October is going to resonate with many Brexit Voters. It might even bring back some Conservatives who have lent their Vote to the Brexit Party so far.

But bouncing out to Switzerland and making a big speech telling everyone that you will secure the concessions you want just by preparing for a no deal exit is not a sound strategy. Especially given the history of the past two years; how the Parliamentary dynamic is one of crystallised entrenchment, and how the EU has in effect been playing us like amateurs wearing straight jackets on a golf course whilst they have been hitting every shot completely under par.

None of us have anything to fear from a No Deal Brexit.

That is as long as it is both managed as best as the circumstances will allow AND the direction of travel is clear and above all obvious to everyone who has to be taken along.

The circumstances of our departure from the EU cannot simply be left as the knee-jerk plan of a new Prime Minister who fails to look beyond what are merely the highlighted issues facing them in isolation. Issues that are only perceived to be the specific driving force behind an overwhelming but nonetheless populist surge.

Such an approach will surely only be to secure their own position, rather than to demonstrate the leadership and strategic skills that will be necessary to navigate an effective EU Exit and then oversee the beginning of a new future for the UK and our return to a fully functioning democracy. An outcome that will only come by conducting Brexit as the Public expects before using it as a springboard to what lies beyond.

It is the action of either a fool or of a tunnel-visioned Remainer that will countenance an immediate approach to the EU in any circumstance upon their appointment, without changing the political deck of cards that those leading government have.

There is no doubt that creating a situation where there are once again unknowns present for the EU negotiators – so that they then have no choice but to respond appropriately, is one of several key elements necessary to facilitate a workable way forward.

There is no low hanging fruit that is not already rotten dangling from this tree.

The real risk in this immediate use of the deliberately crowd pleasing rhetoric that Boris has used is that it makes no allowance for the reality, process or political games that are involved in seeing both an outcome and solution based Brexit all the way through.

It’s not even simply a question of Brexit just being fully implemented.

In the hindsight of everyone, whether we were originally Leavers or supported Remain, we must all be able to look back in the years to come and see that Brexit was the doorway that led to a great many of this Country’s problems being solved.

No matter the arguments to the contrary that anyone presents, the reality is that the People Voted for a No Deal Brexit.

The only thing that remains is that there have never been other options or shades of Brexit in between.

We don’t already have Our No Deal Brexit because there are too many Politicians in Westminster who put their own priorities first. They have done so continually since the Referendum, rather than consider the democratic will of the people following the Vote.

The turbulence that is almost certain to envelope a so-called ‘crash out’ from the EU at the end of October would play into the hands of these fearful but still influential people very well.

Without a General Election there simply won’t be the parliamentary numbers available to take all of the steps and decisions that will be needed, and provide cushion enough to ensure that whatever happens during the process, the government is ready and able to effectively respond.

Yes, it could all work out well anyway. But it’s an irresponsible level of reliance upon chance alone to expect things simply to work out perfectly, and there are far too many variables in the mix that could too easily make it all go wrong.

To counteract this real possibility, there has to be a clear outline of what Brexit means in terms of benefits that demonstrates that even though the Vote was won, the reasons for Leaving the EU were actually undersold.

It will be unwise for any Prime Minister to rely solely on the anger of the Electorate over the Brexit betrayal, which although very real and justified, would soon evaporate when the temporary difficulties that will accompany our divorce from an overpowering entity like the EU become manifest.

Riding what may be percieved and portrayed by the media as a tidal wave of problems that will be noted for their possible impact, rather than the reality and the very short time involved, will require a different mindset from our Leaders.

That means a new narrative, which encourages everyone including Remainers to buy in to the benefits of what comes after we Leave, rather than gifting them the opportunity to derail our exit and blame it on chaos and no way forward other than the safe haven of returning to membership of the EU.

Believe me when I say that it will be a complete travesty for our Country, and the end of democracy in any real form for all of us if this is then what the heralds of fear succeed in making us do.

No new leader of the Conservative Party who takes Brexit and the obligation of the Government to the Electorate seriously can fail to see that a General Election is now firmly on the horizon.

There is a step-by-step process to getting there along with very different way of thinking. Above all, there is a lot of work involved.

They must not and cannot even consider compromising on the steps that are necessary to achieve what the People are now requiring of Government.

No matter what level of risk they may or may not perceive as there being to their own role.

The steps to be taken, once the Conservative Leadership question has been settled in overview are simple but unavoidable with this Parliament and the MPs that we current;y have. There are no better options involved, even though it could and should have been started weeks before now.

If the new PM wants to stop this mess from going irreparably wrong:

  1. Forget talking to the EU. We have until Halloween before they need to know what’s happening. Use the time wisely. There isn’t the time for the foolishness for a drawn out Leadership Election. It’s vanity at the worst possible moment and it’s simply getting in the way.
  2. Embrace A New Politics. A way of working which is about everyone. Not just the Politicians involved. This may involve taking what looks like a very different approach politically as well as ethically. It may require a different kind of partnership. But this IS the time to really be very bold.
  3. Create a new Manifesto, involving real People through engagement of a level where is is clear that they have ownership.
  4. Publish and discuss the new manifesto. Communicate the real truths of our history with the EU, the tangible benefits of Brexit and demonstrate a genuine ambition for our Country and for everyone. This is OUR shared future after all.
  5. Go to the People, secure their Mandate and a working majority in Parliament that is all about everyone, delivering Brexit and returning the UK to a world leading democracy as the primary cause. This aim must never be undersold.
  6. Finally go back to the EU and tell them that we are Leaving with or without their support. That the doors to the UK PLC will he left wide open to the world including and beyond our European neighbours. They then have a legitimately unilateral choice to decide whether they now want to be stupid in the way that they respond

The easy way for a new PM to approach Brexit following their appointment is the one that that will most likely lead the UK to disaster.

There is the right way, which will be hard but will be worth it. Because Brexit can AND will be both delivered AND secured.

Being brave and having confidence in the legitimacy of what the People really now want would ensure that the legacy of this coming Leadership will have been to open the doors fully to the new opportunities that await us as a result of Brexit. As we step into the brave new world for all of our communities and businesses as we look out beyond.

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