Home > Uncategorized > A No Deal Brexit will only be a threat to the EU when it’s real. That’s when concessions worth more than words will come, yet none of those who would be PM show any sign that they will do what must be done

A No Deal Brexit will only be a threat to the EU when it’s real. That’s when concessions worth more than words will come, yet none of those who would be PM show any sign that they will do what must be done

Minion BrexitBoom!!! – Apologies, I meant to say ‘Boom Soon!!!’

May fires the starting pistol (with a delayed charge) and the Conservative Leadership hopefuls have started falling over themselves to out the open secret of their career ambition and destroy the credibility of the other candidates over Brexit. As if all of them had a faultless record left anyway.

The elephant in the room is that they have all immediately and unceremoniously returned to type. And the problem with all the playground nonsense like ‘I’m best because’ is that it is not what we now need from a Political Leader.

This behaviour simply doesn’t represent the change or direction of travel towards everything that has become the prerequisite necessity from ALL our Politicians. That is if Brexit and ALL of the problems that the UK is now facing have any real chance of being resolved.

Setting out a sales pitch with what amounts to little more than a wish list that illustrates little more understanding of how to succeed at anything without a blanket of political ambiguity doesn’t help anyone. It gives no inspiration and no hope that any of these would-be Prime Ministers are ready to even attempt to grapple with the heady requirements of delivering a reasoned future for this Country in the immediate term. Never mind the aspiration we want to experience that would reassure us all that we would have the right person stewarding us through it and from then on.

The Leadership contest, or rather the appointment of our next Prime Minister should not be just about personalities.

The priority MUST be the best option for the Country.

With the restriction and limitations of having to choose a replacement for Theresa May strictly from the MPs currently available, the question we should be asking is which of these Politicians is the most likely to have what it takes to make progress where May either couldn’t or wouldn’t, and then take the steps necessary to begin getting things done.

Regrettably the early signs are far from good.

Cross-the-board talk of renegotiating May’s Withdrawal Agreement, despite the EU making clear that there is no renegotiation to be had, might fuel the collective delusion that a Brexit that works for everyone can be delivered without the need to call a General Election.

But this is an approach that will quickly prove meaningless. It is a waste of time. It is highly dangerous. Above all, it demonstrates that none of the Candidates think there is any issue management required of them beyond the act of actually Leaving the EU itself when they can get up on a podium somewhere and declare ‘there we are – we have left!’.

A new Prime Minister pursuing this approach will crash and burn. Just like Theresa May.

All this nonsense and lack of direction towards embracing change tells everyone outside Westminster that the Tories are still stuck with the same ideas. They are fearful for their positions and are in no way ready to embrace the different approach to politics that everything and everyone outside of their bubble is telling them that they now should.

These who would lead are not taking the opportunity to demonstrate that they have vision and wherewithal enough to look at and consider the terrain beyond the immediate horizon.

They are looking at precisely the wrong fault-lines within the whole Brexit process and falling into the trap of thinking the only impediment to getting the mythical deal that would be acceptable to everyone was the approach taken by Mrs May.

The reality is that May’s tenure was a key part of the problem. But May’s time in Office was also symptomatic of the many problems and deficiencies with the approach of successive Governments to the whole Brexit process and to our relationship with the EU.

The fundamental flaw to dealing with the EU over Brexit has been the failure to recognise and accept the reality that you cannot ever negotiate effectively when you are looking backwards.

Yet this what May and the Remainers in Parliament have been doing and yes, the Brexiteer Candidates are now trying to do with their approach to what they will do after winning the Conservative Party Leadership.

The problem with it is that it is exactly what gutless and self-serving Politicians have been doing all along.

The only way that the Brexit can be delivered that will honour the Referendum and Vote properly and then bring all sides back together is the one that steps off from No Deal.

It is little more than laziness at best and poor leadership at worst to think that having No Deal as the aim or in reality just a threat, is the way that meaningful concessions leading to a fair relationship with the EU will be won.

May began her tenure by thinking the same way that most of those who want to be her successor are indicating they are today. That’s heading into the situation paying lip service to No Deal and framing it as being a realistic outcome. But behind closed doors behaving very differently and having a deal agreed before anything happens as the aim.

A deal means compromise and compromise is an option that MPs don’t actually have.

Compromise will always end up with obligations to the EU and rule taking of some sort. Because the very nature of a deal dictates that you have to give or put something on the table, when and if its the only route to getting the result that you otherwise wouldn’t have.

Our departure is and never was dependent upon us striking a deal with the EU that would allow us to Leave.

Leaving the EU only once a deal has been agreed wasn’t an option on the Referendum Ballot Paper.

Our Politicians have invented this outcome as the answer to the leading question they would have liked, but in fact we were never asked.

The relationship that we will have with the EU after Brexit is not dependent upon striking a deal of any kind before we have Left.

As it is now very clear that May wasted the opportunity to negotiate effectively with the EU, we can only achieve a sensible, reasoned and fair dynamic to trade and to our future relationship with the other EU Countries if we begin that discussion once we are actually out.

We MUST be looking forward to the future and have the strength and advantage that will only come from being an Independent and Sovereign Nation once again.

The Independent Status of the UK at that very moment is essential for negotiating a working relationship that is fair to us all.

It will be about a relationship, not a deal. Yes, we will almost certainly have time-defined contracts as part of that relationship that will be based on true partnership. But without being outside of the EU already, thats an option that we will simply never have.

The only priority for a new Prime Minister should be getting the UK out of the EU as quickly as possible, whilst putting all the necessary building blocks and resources in place to ensure that once we Leave the EU we will not immediately be turning around to go back.

With Brexit done properly, our PM will convince us that we are only going to look forward, even at those moments when some might be tempted to look back at the phoney safe harbour of the EU and use the siren call of transitioning back to our state of independence to smash Our Exit on the rocks.

For us to be confident in them, they must believe and convince us of the belief that together, we can weather any storm and and that they are also ready to embrace each and every opportunity for the future that would not be open to us if we had been tied to the EU by any deal, with costly obligations to outside Country continuing to be the norm.

Promising that we will simply leave the EU without a deal on 31st October sounds appealing and as if it is the right direction to take.

But it is too risky to undertake deliberately on the part of any serious Candidate, if there is the genuine desire to make Brexit permanent. Because the majority of MPs in this current Parliament will do whatever it takes to keep us within or then return us to the shackles of the EU.

Without preparing the ground, the weeds choking the Brexit seedbed are just going to carry on shutting out the daylight to our post-Brexit freedom until their own cause wins and the UK Remaining shackled to the EU is the result that comes out from the other side of this storm.

There is no option for a Leader taking delivering Brexit seriously to avoid calling a General Election in the Autumn.

Before doing so they must take every step necessary to demonstrate that they and the Conservative Party are embracing A New Politics and are ready to live and breathe a very new kind of Manifesto, dripping with change. One that inspires and builds confidence with ambition for everyone right across our Nation. And it will have UK PLC as the primary cause.

To do this means that the time of Politicians putting the electability of their Party or the security of their own seat in Parliament is over.

The new Conservative Prime Minister must accept that their role as a Representative of the People is about something much bigger and that sometimes they must be open to the possibility of their own or their Party’s loss.

That might well necessitate building a coalition based on the delivery of outcomes and not compromise or job security, so that they can then do what’s right for the Country and everyone.

Only then will they have a true legacy that they can always know is theirs to own.

A real Brexit is coming one way or the other and it will start with a true No Deal at its root.

For the new Conservative Leader the only alternative of options available will be to step up and do all that is necessary to win both Our Brexit AND the Peace. Or to continue with all the talk and just delay Brexit even further as they finish off their Party as an electoral force.

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