Home > Brexit, Europe, National Politics > The Brexit Party May well end up hoisted by its own petard if the UK Exits the EU BEFORE we have a General Election and a Brexit-backing majority of MPs has been secured

The Brexit Party May well end up hoisted by its own petard if the UK Exits the EU BEFORE we have a General Election and a Brexit-backing majority of MPs has been secured

img_2163Beyond all the infighting and arguments over who actually won the European Referendum and how the results can be reinterpreted to suit the needs of vested interests, the Brexit Party could be getting a bit carried away with the pursuit of a 31st October EU Exit. That is unless they can accept that a fruitful outcome to this argument could have a lot of pain for them and all Brexiteers hidden in store.

Before continuing I need to make something very clear. That is I would be happy for us to be out of the EU without a deal as soon as is humanly possible.

But I also want us to stay out and remain out of the EU long enough so that both Remainers and Leavers alike can start to appreciate the benefits for everyone that will only come once Brexit is completed and secure.

Right now it feels to everyone as if Nigel Farage, his newly elected MEPs and the whole Brexit Party can write their own ticket.

But this is complacency rather than realism. And it could be the first step to ensuring that the whole Brexit project – that’s UK Independence and Sovereignty – is ultimately well and truly lost.

Farage turned his ire on the EU during a press call on Tuesday. Shouting at them that we are going on the 31st of October without a deal, and that if the EU wants better Terms with the UK, it’s up to them to come running, or sit there and count the cost.

Yes, it’s all-powerful rhetoric. And it’s already isolating all of the Conservative Leadership hopefuls bar one.

Yet what the Brexit Party and all of these Conservative Leadership Candidates have in common at this moment is a lack of appreciation that Brexit has and never has been as simple as the mere action of officially Leaving.

Brexit is terrifically complicated – in some ways on purpose I might add. And to fail to do the work necessary to counter this fact and have the right contingencies in place before we take the step out, could result in much worse for the UK than if the 2016 European Referendum on Leaving the EU had simply been lost.

The Parliamentary dynamic that exists today is going to continue to be a significant and potentially terminal problem for Brexit.

If we Leave whilst the Parliamentary Balance is significantly in favour of EU Membership rather than the UK being outside of it, these Remainer MPs will use every opportunity, every story, every fear present to ensure that the overwhelming numbers they have with the weak-willed who will then support them, will not only frustrate Brexit from the location of our short time outside of the EU. But will then be used to turn the UK around and go straight back in. This time on what will be ridiculously unfavorable terms, such as adopting the Euro and committing our Armed forces to a permanent, sitting EU Army.

This really should give every Brexiteer pause for thought.

I am aware that Farage is bigging up the chances that the Brexit Party will win big in a General Election post-Brexit.

But if a no deal Exit is fucked up by a lack of good leadership in a weak, Conservative Minority Government, combined with a Parliamentary Majority being there for Remain (or by this time Return), the public emotion will by this point have surely shifted from outrage against democratic injustice to what the perceived impact of the problems of the transition will be for the short, medium and long term. They will no longer be holding out for any hero unable to give surety to solutions in an immediate and tangible form.

It would be a mistake for any Conservative Leadership hopeful to consider this scenario and take any kind of comfort. Because the fate of the Conservative and Brexit Parties is now inextricably linked.

If Brexit should unfold this way, it will have been under your watch and your leadership. And that will mean that regardless of how strong and pertinent the warnings over Marxism and what the reality of a Corbynista Government will be, People will by then be looking for the first port in the storm and send their votes straight over to him.

Jeremy Corbyn and the henchpeople around him may well have read the political runes and this would explain why even now Labour seem unable to behave in any kind of joined-up way.

But make no mistake. If any of you would-be Brexit Leaders should succeed in pushing for or even allowing a crash out, no deal Brexit in October by apparent default, and have done so without going to the Country first, believe me when I say that Brexit blowing up in your face will be the least of your problems, because for all of us, things will be about to get a whole lot worse.

There are few who would call themselves fans of the current Conservative Party hierarchy. Conversely many will admire and respect what Nigel Farage has done.

But if the two entities don’t take a step back and see how they now need to work together and very closely, the war they are squaring up to fight – based only on Brexit alone – is not one that will be won.

The Brexit Party has the power to capture hearts and minds very widely over Brexit, but no ability to unify its followers beyond the Brexit question, with policies or indeed a party machine that can bring them all together as a credible, long-term political cause.

The Conservatives have forgotten what it is to be conservative and must embrace far-reaching and fundamental change. But they already have the structure and experience that with new thinking can bring A New Politics into being, be used as the vehicle to reunite us all and remove our divisions, then take us forward as the UK becomes an Independent Sovereign State and walks onto an entirely different world stage.

If the leadership of both Parties can now find a way to work with each other and respect that they can fill the gaping holes of each others Party structure at a time when to go forward there are simply no other options available or way they can deliver Brexit, succeed or remain involved, they CAN and WILL deliver on the Vote of the 2016 Referendum AND benefit everyone who has become involved.

None of this can be achieved without a late September or early October General Election based on Leave vs. Remain.

And to achieve the desired outcome, the Manifesto that is created must sell the benefits of Brexit as well as to promote A New Politics in order to achieve wider buy-in to win over the Voters who support the EU and Remaining with them – because to them that’s just the way that things always appear to have been done.

As Farage has proven with the success in the EU Elections in the space of just a few short weeks, a General Election Campaign can be conducted and won over the Summer, just so long as all those fighting for a real Brexit understand and accept that the political world has already changed around them and that General Elections are fought under a very different kind of sun.

 

image thanks to unknown

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