Home > Brexit, Europe > The Leave constituency is ‘heads’, ‘hearts’ or ‘let’s back whoever is most likely to deliver’. If there is a choice of Brexit Candidates, Leavers will not all be voting the same

The Leave constituency is ‘heads’, ‘hearts’ or ‘let’s back whoever is most likely to deliver’. If there is a choice of Brexit Candidates, Leavers will not all be voting the same

GE2019

Something feels different about the General Election that is now coming on Thursday 12th December. But it’s not the issue fatigue we have with Brexit. It’s not the anger that so many of us have with those MPs who have been dragging out and obstructing a democratic decision for their own personal gain. It’s not even the time of year, the dark-early nights, wintery chills or the prospect of going to the Polling Station on a December night.

The thing that feels so different about this General Election is the cold, hard reality that things could very easily turn out on Friday 13th December to be a whole lot worse than they are today, and at best, that they could simply turn out to be exactly the same.

Our MPs, Politicians and their Political Parties haven’t yet really began to understand and certainly not to accept just how badly they have overlooked the Electorate that they have also so severely misjudged.

The propaganda wins that the political classes were once used to and could look ahead to during the early days of an Election Campaign as being a sure thing are no longer theirs to grab.

These politicians will never again score what now look like the mythical home-runs that only two decades ago seemed to be assured for the main Political Parties in a General Election. That is until they change the way they are approaching their responsibilities and completely recalibrate their system of respect for the concept of governance and what it means to represent the British Public and the interests of our Country at large.

No, the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats can no longer be assured that People are going to vote for them just because of who they are.

A realignment in politics is underway. And what is now going to become a Leave vs Remain General Election in December will only be the start.

Whilst Boris Johnson’s Policy on Brexit is not the clean, no-deal Exit from the EU that we Voted for in 2016, many People will approach their choice of who to Vote for on the basis that it is. The polls currently reflect this too.

But some of those who are currently backing Boris’ Conservatives have not yet woken to the reality that his plan and their aspirations are not on the same page. They soon will.

Because Boris’ deal isn’t a meaningful or true Brexit in the genuine sense, there are others who will not support the Conservatives in this Election, simply because after all we have been through since May came to power, this deal will not deliver the purists Brexit that those who believe in the power of democracy know should have always been Boris’ primary aim.

Those who believe in Brexit – either because they always have done, or because they simply believe in democracy – are not of one simple demographic.

The Leave Constituency is today more or less divided into three.

The Heads.

The Hearts.

The Leavers who will back whoever they believe most likely to deliver the Brexit that they aspire to.

And the problem that the Prime Minister now has as he stares down the barrel of this Leave vs Remain General Election, is that at this stage, he is betting the outcome on the misplaced belief that all Leavers will now support his plan and Vote Conservative on the 12th of December just the same.

They won’t.

And as the Election Campaign wears on, the spotlight will not only broaden to other issues that are of wider public concern. The differences between what Boris calls Brexit and what Brexit actually is, is likely to be brought heavily into focus with the differences opened up to scrutiny and for all Leavers to see.

On Election Day, the Heads will Vote Tory, because that what logic tells us they will do.

The Hearts will Vote Brexit Party, because it will to them be the honest and sincere choice.

The floating Leavers who Boris is already counting as in the bag, will almost certainly move in between.

With the prospect of the Leave Vote being split between 2 or perhaps even 3 Candidates across a great number of key Constituencies, there is a substantial risk that the Policy on Brexit that Boris has so far adopted will energise the Brexit Party as an alternative and polarise votes within the Vote.

At best, this could lead to the Parliamentary numbers looking almost identical to how they do today.

At their worst, it could allow a Labour majority or Labour-led Coalition into power which will very quickly leave People wishing that things actually had remained the same.

By taking the approach that he has so far, Boris has demonstrated that to him, politics is still the same as it always has been.

Taking this approach is not how he will deliver a meaningful Brexit. It’s certainly not the way that he will ultimately win.

To go forward and gain the numbers in Parliament that he must surely now want, Boris must accept that the only way to defuse the prospect of a split Vote is to bring Leave Voters together and remove any choice that currently lurks in between,

The only way to do this is to work with the Brexit Party to secure this General Election Vote and with it the working majority in Parliament that not only he, but the whole Country needs.

No matter how unpalatable it might feel to him or to other Tories by working with the Brexit Party and forming an Electoral Pact, doing so is not only necessary, it is the only way that as a Tory Prime Minister Boris will be able to secure the Votes necessary to deliver a meaningful Brexit and the legacy by which he clearly hopes his tenure in No10 will be defined.

Some of us are very uncomfortable with the idea of the Brexit Party gaining any responsibility or influence on Government in any form.

But to focus on sidelining the Brexit Party as the overriding issue is neglectful not only of where the politic dynamic now is. It ignores the changing terrain in British Politics which is running away from political tribalism and now seeks to put the People back at the centre of politics and make all of us together the only focus and the only cause.

The political runes are now laid out on the table in plain sight for us all to see.

Boris just has to decide whether he wants Leavers to become one, united behind him, or to watch a very different outcome for this Country unfold as he blithely encourages them to stay divided as three.

 

 

 

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