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Want a real Brexit and Corbyn kept out of No.10? – A General Election is now the only way…

images-2Coverage of the result of the Peterborough By-Election actually felt different. Maybe even a little odd. But perhaps prescient of the direction our Politics is now going – a place where there is no control or script and it all seems to be in the hands of the gods.

Within hours of this blog being published, the gurus of political interpretation will have of course broken the whole thing up and began spinning it into many different, but for them, primarily self-serving ways. However, the reality will nonetheless remain underneath it all that Politics in this Country has changed and things are never going to be the same again.

Yet the politicians refuse to see it.

They are still looking at everything coming at them through the lens of the old politics – and yes, I’m even including the Brexit Party as being one of them in this instance too.

To perhaps understand this a little better, it is important to consider the Peterborough result.

Yes, the Labour Candidate was Elected. But the Brexit Party Candidate wasn’t far behind them and it would be foolish to frame the Conservative Candidate’s 3rd place as being outside of the same room.

Somewhere, probably in London today, different conversations will be taking place around the realities of what can be gleaned from the way the vote was split.

Some of this thinking will simply be deluded. Some of it will be based on outright fear. But what will be common among all of it will be the view that the problem is outside of the Politicians hands, outside of their Party’s control and that it will be something or someone else who is getting it all wrong.

With the Peterborough result for these three Political Parties and the wider Westminster Polls being dispersed between them and the Liberal Democrats as they are, you can bet that the debate will end up for many of them concluding that First Past The Post is now redundant and should be replaced by some other form of electoral system that will benefit the de facto righteousness of their position – such as PR.

What they fail to observe, or deliberately overlook and therefore do not accept, is the reason that none of them – even with Brexit involved – is offering the leadership, vision and inspiration that is necessary to formulate the public policy that the People now want and is required of our Politicians and their Parties not just for Brexit, but as we step off into a world based on A New Politics beyond.

Playing around with the Electoral System will only benefit the Political Parties and the Politicians themselves.

It will sure up, consolidate and in some cases expand their presence and position.

But the upshot is that the opportunity to provide the kind of decisiveness and defining leadership that we now need in British Politics more than ever, will simply be lost.

Brexit and the future of this Country requires good leadership and the decisiveness that goes with it by the truckload. Without it the mess we are now in is set to get a whole lot worse.

What Politicians should understand from the results and polling as they are, is that no Political Party is currently capable of commanding a working majority in Parliament.

Without a working majority, neither Brexit nor anything substantial in terms of the changes to and creation of new Policy that our People now need is going to be addressed in any meaningful and lasting way. That simply has to change.

The biggest risk to Brexit and to our Democracy –  make no mistake that the two are now intricately linked – is that the new Conservative Leadership will continue onwards and go all out to enable a No Deal Exit from the EU by 31st of October – just so the Conservative Party can claim that they have achieved and can take ownership of that result.

If the current Parliamentary dynamic doesn’t stop them before they do so, there is a storm cloud awaiting them on the other side. Because it is there that the Remain majority in Parliament – if it has not been changed – will have an incredibly hard stick to beat the Government with, and the ability to make serious hay from the sunshine that they will see pouring over them from the inevitable problems that will follow a No Deal Brexit that has been executed in this specific way.

Taking the UK back into the EU on the turnaround of a sixpence is not something that any Political Party with designs or long term aspirations on being the natural party of government is going to want to do. Especially when the straightjacket that the UK will have no choice but to accept as part of a completely one-way and loaded bargain will inevitably become poison for whoever was to blame – irrespective of the Politicians who were actually involved.

The only way out of this problem is to recognise Party boundaries and tribal loyalties as the ties that bind all of todays MPs to the politics of old. The old politics that the public are telling them is not only flawed but is fundamentally wrong.

Our Politicians must come together to deliver on the issues. And the issue which is the doorway to solving all other issues is Brexit – whether our Politicians like that fact or not.

The People Voted for the UK to Leave the EU without any deal or ties. Giving us anything less will simply be wrong. This includes coming out of the EU and then taking us immediately back in, whilst MPs then sell their ineptitude and lacklustre attempts at managing the Process as evidence that the whole thing was wrong.

The only Political Parties that have the ability to coagulate around the fact, reality and message that a full and proper Brexit must happen are the Brexit Party and the Conservative Party. And it is within the Conservative Party where the real struggle is still taking place, as it has been all along.

The new Conservative Prime Minister must accept and then immediately act on the fact that without a General Election and securing the Brexit MP Majority that it will give them if they ask for Public support in the right way, the future is effectively lost.

To realise and achieve the alternative – which is a real and permanent Brexit, there is no option for the next Conservative Party Leadership other than to swallow their pride for the greater good and work with the Brexit Party to establish a ‘Grand Brexit Coalition’.

Working together these Political Parties can provide that Brexit Majority and then ensure that our Brexit and the great future that follows it will for all of us be secure.

If they fail to do so, the future is very bleak. It is one that revolves around Corbyn and his Marxist tentacles reaching out and destroying everything we value from No.10.

The cost to everyone in this Country from allowing this to happen will go way beyond the destruction of the Conservative Party. It will simply be too high.

Isn’t it time the Conservative Leadership put the requirements of real Leadership first and did whatever necessary to get the job done?

 

image thanks to unknown

It may well be in the EU’s interests to let the UK crash out in October with no deal. Because without a change of Parliament, they know this Remain majority of MPs will use any panic to lever us straight back in – and strictly on the EU’s terms

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Even though we are only a few days into the phony part of the Conservative Leadership war, you would be forgiven for thinking that at least some of the growing number of Candidates would have by now indicated that they are embracing radical change.

That they are not is not only disappointing. It points to the reality that we have good reason to be concerned about a whole lot more.

I say this because none of the Candidates are proposing any kind of approach to Brexit that is going to minimise the risk from any problems likely to arise during the transition. Or more importantly, to then keep us out of the EU thereby making the decision of the people a permanent one and Brexit therefore completely secure.

Those Candidates insisting that they will go back and negotiate further concessions from the EU have no evidence to suggest that they will meet anything in Brussels, other than a TV opportunity that covers up a very thick brick wall. This has been emphasised yet again by Jean-Claude Juncker in the past 24 hours.

Then there are those Candidates insisting that deal or no deal, we will come out of the EU on the 31st of October. Yes, this is a message that plays up well to a big slice of the Brexiteer audience. But in all cases, thinking that Brexit could after this long be so very simple, is likely to be a terminal flaw.

It should be obvious to everyone that the majority of MPs in this Parliament are hell bent on stopping Brexit, and even the Remain-charmer Speaker is now rowing back on his commitment to leave the post in June.

That means that if we should crash out without a deal and apparently find ourselves Independent on All Saints Day, they will relish the opportunity to use any panic that follows as a result of the issues and challenges that will inevitably follow to do everything they can to point us back at an even more oppressive form of Membership of the EU by using fear again to point us the other way.

The EU are very clever at what they do. They already know this.

And they know that without the Parliamentary dynamic changing, all they are likely to be required to do in order to end the whole Brexit question and put the UK’s perceived intransigence to bed, is to sit tight and wait for the Remainers. Who like May in these circumstances will do all their work for them instead.

We know that the Conservative Leadership Candidates are focusing on the job they want and putting the continuation of this Conservative Government at the heart of what they are doing.

But this is not what the Country has asked them for. It smacks of the very same old politics that we are collectively telling them is now over.

They clearly all share the same expectation that avoiding a General Election before Brexit will save their Party and this is the first thing they need to change.

They must also forget the idea that they can now deliver Brexit without a Leave-led Parliamentary majority. A working majority that will be needed to weather the inevitable storm the UK will be required to sail through immediately after the date that we Leave in order to reach the blue skies and clear water that lies the other side.

A Parliamentary majority will not come solely from People voting Conservative. Or at least not before Brexit is over and done and the issue is completely settled, and the friendships that have forged the Brexit movement have moved back to their tribal homes because that battle has been won.

So the next realisation that the Conservatives must face up to and accept is that a coalition with the Brexit Party is inevitable if delivering Brexit, keeping their Seats and saving the Conservative Party is actually what they want to do. Once the penny has dropped that a Parliamentary Majority that includes them being attained BEFORE Brexit is the only way they will ever be sure that the Public will elect Brexit Party MPs.

To give Brexit the best chance of success possible, foolish ideas about controlling events that are uncontrollable must be quickly swept aside.

Party loyalty and tribalism is not going to be important for the foreseeable future.

It’s about delivery and that’s all.

And to deliver Brexit, the Conservative Leader will have to go forward with Brexiteers of all backgrounds stood by their side.

It is silliness bordering on inexcusable ignorance to believe that leaving without a deal under any circumstances on 1st November will answer all of the questions being asked of our Politicians.

Because if a no deal Brexit happens without a majority of MPs who are ready to have wax poured in their ears whilst the Prime Minister straps themselves to the mast of a true and unyielding Brexit, the whole plan will quickly get smashed up on the rocks.

And this time we really will be at the complete mercy of the EU – which is all the bureaucrats running this autocracy could pray for.

It will force us to give them all they could ever want.

 

Everyone take a deep breath because there’s only one candidate for No.10 who can pick up this shit-soaked ball and move us towards a place where the whole UK can begin to win again

December 11, 2018 Leave a comment

I’ve made little secret of my distaste for the damage that ambition and self-interest in politics does. So much so, I even wrote a book to help people entering politics to counter it.

But when the shit hits the proverbial fan, like it has done through the premiership of Prime Minister Theresa May, there is simply no choice but to look to how we play with the cards we have been dealt, rather than shuffling, or better still introducing a new deck to take things in a direction that resembles where they should have been.

When you spend time talking to people out in the real world about politics, you know that the question of who will replace May is something that has been playing on minds.

None of what the political world would identify as being the usual suspects within a sitting government – aka the Cabinet itself – now have the credibility or clear political disposition to take things a different way.

They are inextricably linked with May’s Brexit Withdrawal Agreement which is an extended version of Remain, and their behaviour guarantees that they are now personally too entrenched with a direction which runs contrary to the will of the People, for any of them to be taken seriously as a force for good which can bring us all together, rather than continue to polarise by playing to one audience whilst singing a different song to another, all under a pretence of ignoring the Electorate in the same way as May.

Yet Cabinet Members share a commonality with all of those who would now be king or queen. They are all ridiculously ambitious, and whilst in virtually every case that ambition is clearly about gaining the position and perceived kudos which goes with going our PM, it is not the responsibility itself that they covet. And that is where in a time of increasing National need, rather than bring something new and in-touch with the people to the table, they will doom us to another term of self-interest and I-know-best led government. The very same as May’s disastrous tenure, just without the same figurehead and a change of names.

Out of the obvious candidates who we recognise as being available for the Parliamentary Conservative Party to choose from, there is only one candidate who stretches beyond this, is capable of doing something different than the others, and Boris Johnson is his name.

Yes, to politicians Boris has a taste like Marmite. Ask anyone else who doesn’t like him and they will claim that ambition and buffoonery are the only things that spring to mind when you mention his name. But the thing that we all should consider much more carefully is the power of his touch. Boris can bring people together in unfathomable ways, turn electoral tides in different directions like he did in two Mayoral Elections in London, and as Leader of the Conservative Party and as our Prime Minister, when we need something very different from the Conservative Party to deal with both the EU and the risk from Corbyn’s Labour, Boris can sprinkle his form of fairy dust and turn things around in Parliament just the same.

The key to embracing the idea of Boris is to understand that whilst he is stupidly ambitious to be our next Prime Minister, there is a key part of that ambition which is very different to the other likely candidates and it is not as simple as him being a ‘Leaver’, rather than the case of many others being linked inextricably to Remain.

Boris knows his destiny is intrinsically linked with the will and direction of the people. He has the knack of being just a step ahead of the game when it comes to what people outside of the political sphere really want, and whilst there may be a flurry of big words and faffing around that accompanies it, it’s the delivery at the end of the process that people now want.

This is what Boris can give, unlike the other candidates who will sell a great sounding the story, but like May and a series of PM’s before her will never actually be in the position to deliver or give.

We simply don’t know how Boris would behave in a crisis. But his best will surely be no less than anyone else could give. Right now we need a form of political leadership that can reengage the masses, bring a good leadership team together, deliver what people have instructed and begin the process of once again making the UK a great place to live.

Until the time things have changed in Politics and we have other options, there is little doubt that a Boris-led Government is the best of what is available, and taking a risk on anything else will almost certainly be akin to going around in yet more disastrous circles and is destined to hit the skids.

image thanks to bbc.co.uk

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