Archive

Posts Tagged ‘Don’t blow Brexit’

It may well be in the EU’s interests to let the UK crash out in October with no deal. Because without a change of Parliament, they know this Remain majority of MPs will use any panic to lever us straight back in – and strictly on the EU’s terms

img_3394

Even though we are only a few days into the phony part of the Conservative Leadership war, you would be forgiven for thinking that at least some of the growing number of Candidates would have by now indicated that they are embracing radical change.

That they are not is not only disappointing. It points to the reality that we have good reason to be concerned about a whole lot more.

I say this because none of the Candidates are proposing any kind of approach to Brexit that is going to minimise the risk from any problems likely to arise during the transition. Or more importantly, to then keep us out of the EU thereby making the decision of the people a permanent one and Brexit therefore completely secure.

Those Candidates insisting that they will go back and negotiate further concessions from the EU have no evidence to suggest that they will meet anything in Brussels, other than a TV opportunity that covers up a very thick brick wall. This has been emphasised yet again by Jean-Claude Juncker in the past 24 hours.

Then there are those Candidates insisting that deal or no deal, we will come out of the EU on the 31st of October. Yes, this is a message that plays up well to a big slice of the Brexiteer audience. But in all cases, thinking that Brexit could after this long be so very simple, is likely to be a terminal flaw.

It should be obvious to everyone that the majority of MPs in this Parliament are hell bent on stopping Brexit, and even the Remain-charmer Speaker is now rowing back on his commitment to leave the post in June.

That means that if we should crash out without a deal and apparently find ourselves Independent on All Saints Day, they will relish the opportunity to use any panic that follows as a result of the issues and challenges that will inevitably follow to do everything they can to point us back at an even more oppressive form of Membership of the EU by using fear again to point us the other way.

The EU are very clever at what they do. They already know this.

And they know that without the Parliamentary dynamic changing, all they are likely to be required to do in order to end the whole Brexit question and put the UK’s perceived intransigence to bed, is to sit tight and wait for the Remainers. Who like May in these circumstances will do all their work for them instead.

We know that the Conservative Leadership Candidates are focusing on the job they want and putting the continuation of this Conservative Government at the heart of what they are doing.

But this is not what the Country has asked them for. It smacks of the very same old politics that we are collectively telling them is now over.

They clearly all share the same expectation that avoiding a General Election before Brexit will save their Party and this is the first thing they need to change.

They must also forget the idea that they can now deliver Brexit without a Leave-led Parliamentary majority. A working majority that will be needed to weather the inevitable storm the UK will be required to sail through immediately after the date that we Leave in order to reach the blue skies and clear water that lies the other side.

A Parliamentary majority will not come solely from People voting Conservative. Or at least not before Brexit is over and done and the issue is completely settled, and the friendships that have forged the Brexit movement have moved back to their tribal homes because that battle has been won.

So the next realisation that the Conservatives must face up to and accept is that a coalition with the Brexit Party is inevitable if delivering Brexit, keeping their Seats and saving the Conservative Party is actually what they want to do. Once the penny has dropped that a Parliamentary Majority that includes them being attained BEFORE Brexit is the only way they will ever be sure that the Public will elect Brexit Party MPs.

To give Brexit the best chance of success possible, foolish ideas about controlling events that are uncontrollable must be quickly swept aside.

Party loyalty and tribalism is not going to be important for the foreseeable future.

It’s about delivery and that’s all.

And to deliver Brexit, the Conservative Leader will have to go forward with Brexiteers of all backgrounds stood by their side.

It is silliness bordering on inexcusable ignorance to believe that leaving without a deal under any circumstances on 1st November will answer all of the questions being asked of our Politicians.

Because if a no deal Brexit happens without a majority of MPs who are ready to have wax poured in their ears whilst the Prime Minister straps themselves to the mast of a true and unyielding Brexit, the whole plan will quickly get smashed up on the rocks.

And this time we really will be at the complete mercy of the EU – which is all the bureaucrats running this autocracy could pray for.

It will force us to give them all they could ever want.

 

%d bloggers like this: