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The Brexit Party May well end up hoisted by its own petard if the UK Exits the EU BEFORE we have a General Election and a Brexit-backing majority of MPs has been secured

img_2163Beyond all the infighting and arguments over who actually won the European Referendum and how the results can be reinterpreted to suit the needs of vested interests, the Brexit Party could be getting a bit carried away with the pursuit of a 31st October EU Exit. That is unless they can accept that a fruitful outcome to this argument could have a lot of pain for them and all Brexiteers hidden in store.

Before continuing I need to make something very clear. That is I would be happy for us to be out of the EU without a deal as soon as is humanly possible.

But I also want us to stay out and remain out of the EU long enough so that both Remainers and Leavers alike can start to appreciate the benefits for everyone that will only come once Brexit is completed and secure.

Right now it feels to everyone as if Nigel Farage, his newly elected MEPs and the whole Brexit Party can write their own ticket.

But this is complacency rather than realism. And it could be the first step to ensuring that the whole Brexit project – that’s UK Independence and Sovereignty – is ultimately well and truly lost.

Farage turned his ire on the EU during a press call on Tuesday. Shouting at them that we are going on the 31st of October without a deal, and that if the EU wants better Terms with the UK, it’s up to them to come running, or sit there and count the cost.

Yes, it’s all-powerful rhetoric. And it’s already isolating all of the Conservative Leadership hopefuls bar one.

Yet what the Brexit Party and all of these Conservative Leadership Candidates have in common at this moment is a lack of appreciation that Brexit has and never has been as simple as the mere action of officially Leaving.

Brexit is terrifically complicated – in some ways on purpose I might add. And to fail to do the work necessary to counter this fact and have the right contingencies in place before we take the step out, could result in much worse for the UK than if the 2016 European Referendum on Leaving the EU had simply been lost.

The Parliamentary dynamic that exists today is going to continue to be a significant and potentially terminal problem for Brexit.

If we Leave whilst the Parliamentary Balance is significantly in favour of EU Membership rather than the UK being outside of it, these Remainer MPs will use every opportunity, every story, every fear present to ensure that the overwhelming numbers they have with the weak-willed who will then support them, will not only frustrate Brexit from the location of our short time outside of the EU. But will then be used to turn the UK around and go straight back in. This time on what will be ridiculously unfavorable terms, such as adopting the Euro and committing our Armed forces to a permanent, sitting EU Army.

This really should give every Brexiteer pause for thought.

I am aware that Farage is bigging up the chances that the Brexit Party will win big in a General Election post-Brexit.

But if a no deal Exit is fucked up by a lack of good leadership in a weak, Conservative Minority Government, combined with a Parliamentary Majority being there for Remain (or by this time Return), the public emotion will by this point have surely shifted from outrage against democratic injustice to what the perceived impact of the problems of the transition will be for the short, medium and long term. They will no longer be holding out for any hero unable to give surety to solutions in an immediate and tangible form.

It would be a mistake for any Conservative Leadership hopeful to consider this scenario and take any kind of comfort. Because the fate of the Conservative and Brexit Parties is now inextricably linked.

If Brexit should unfold this way, it will have been under your watch and your leadership. And that will mean that regardless of how strong and pertinent the warnings over Marxism and what the reality of a Corbynista Government will be, People will by then be looking for the first port in the storm and send their votes straight over to him.

Jeremy Corbyn and the henchpeople around him may well have read the political runes and this would explain why even now Labour seem unable to behave in any kind of joined-up way.

But make no mistake. If any of you would-be Brexit Leaders should succeed in pushing for or even allowing a crash out, no deal Brexit in October by apparent default, and have done so without going to the Country first, believe me when I say that Brexit blowing up in your face will be the least of your problems, because for all of us, things will be about to get a whole lot worse.

There are few who would call themselves fans of the current Conservative Party hierarchy. Conversely many will admire and respect what Nigel Farage has done.

But if the two entities don’t take a step back and see how they now need to work together and very closely, the war they are squaring up to fight – based only on Brexit alone – is not one that will be won.

The Brexit Party has the power to capture hearts and minds very widely over Brexit, but no ability to unify its followers beyond the Brexit question, with policies or indeed a party machine that can bring them all together as a credible, long-term political cause.

The Conservatives have forgotten what it is to be conservative and must embrace far-reaching and fundamental change. But they already have the structure and experience that with new thinking can bring A New Politics into being, be used as the vehicle to reunite us all and remove our divisions, then take us forward as the UK becomes an Independent Sovereign State and walks onto an entirely different world stage.

If the leadership of both Parties can now find a way to work with each other and respect that they can fill the gaping holes of each others Party structure at a time when to go forward there are simply no other options available or way they can deliver Brexit, succeed or remain involved, they CAN and WILL deliver on the Vote of the 2016 Referendum AND benefit everyone who has become involved.

None of this can be achieved without a late September or early October General Election based on Leave vs. Remain.

And to achieve the desired outcome, the Manifesto that is created must sell the benefits of Brexit as well as to promote A New Politics in order to achieve wider buy-in to win over the Voters who support the EU and Remaining with them – because to them that’s just the way that things always appear to have been done.

As Farage has proven with the success in the EU Elections in the space of just a few short weeks, a General Election Campaign can be conducted and won over the Summer, just so long as all those fighting for a real Brexit understand and accept that the political world has already changed around them and that General Elections are fought under a very different kind of sun.

 

image thanks to unknown

A Customs Union: Anything that looks so simple and involves the EU will always be too good to be true

Politics 5There have been and continue to be a great many striking things that the Brexit process and the Vote to Leave the EU have revealed about the way that our political system has and at this point continues to work.

Much of it, although hiding in plain sight for a very long time, has come as a surprise to many.

One that has caused frustration, distrust and indeed anger with the Establishment. With the politicians that form a great part of it, and with anyone who has been playing upon the unwitting and innocent ignorance on the part of many of us of how the political world has been working with its prioritisation firmly focused upon only the benefits for those involved.

We have been brought up, taught and indeed conditioned to trust the people that we elect to a point where we foolishly believed that we don’t need to worry what they are doing.

We trusted that other than at election time, there is simply no need for us to ever get involved in politics.

So it is completely understandable that at the point where Brexit has itself lifted the lid with all that is wrong with our broken politics, we now go in search of the most obvious solutions to get the matter quickly resolved.

Ours is a human response and one that is all too familiar. Because it isn’t just the Electorate that looks for the obvious and simple answers when there is a problem.

To do so is and has for too long also been the default setting for the majority of our MPs whenever there has been the hint of real work for them to do in Government.

This might all seem like a long route into a discussion about a Customs Union. But trying to make sense of this term – that even now is being banded about as what could be the common ground between all sides that gets the Brexit impasse resolved – when even the MPs who are being asked to legislate on Brexit don’t actually know or understand what really is involved, is not something that comes easy to any of us.

With a matter as serious and as potentially far reaching as the question over whether we get a Brexit that ctually delivers on the Referendum Result or doesn’t on the table, we have to be aware that a Customs Union and its implications may not even be the same in reality as what the MPs themselves are being trained on.

A Customs Union is certainly not the same thing as we are being told.

Yes, as ridiculous as it might sound, MPs are having to be trained on what a Customs Union with the EU actually is. And a big part of the problem is that for the many of us who don’t understand how government and legislation actually works, the concept of a Customs Union sounds very simple indeed.

To be fair about it, if you were to look for the meaning of the customs union, you would easily find a brief, perhaps only paragraph long explanation.

One that would no doubt outline that it a Customs Union is a reciprocal relationship between the EU member Countries or Member ‘States’ that harmonises tariffs on goods travelling across or entering the ‘EU’ at any location – even if they then travel to another constituent Country.

By apparent necessity, it leaves the legislation covering each and all of these tariffs for the EU to set in Brussels. Their setting is not left as a matter for any individual Country to resolve.

A Customs Union is a key part of the process of removing geographical borders, so that physical checks between ‘internal’ EU traffic are not necessary. Bureaucracy then appears significantly reduced and it can be argued that there is free, unhindered movement of goods between so-called Member States.

It sounds great. In fact it sounds like a no brainer. This is why the concept Remains so popular.

A Customs Union sounds like the right thing to do until you start to consider the wider implications of being in one and think about its true reach and the real impact upon the UK of all that is actually involved.

But things get confused at this stage. Often deliberately. Because a Customs Union itself is in effect a necessary, if not symbiotically irremovably intrinsic part of a Single Market and a key part of the direction of travel for the supranational EU.

A customs union or its namesake was one of the early dominoes in the chain or history of events that led towards where EU law and legislation is located right now.

A Customs Union between the UK and EU cannot therefore stand alone without legislation that is at the very least equivalent to that which already exists within the ‘known’ EU framework. Even if words and the legislation created say otherwise.

No. It is vital to understand that just as a bark wouldn’t come from a duck and a quack wouldn’t come from a dog, being in a customs union with the EU means that we are and still will be Members of the EU.

The UK cannot and will not be able to legislate as an Independent Sovereign State within a Customs Union.

Ultimately, any form of Brexit that includes even the most simple form of Customs Union machinery or legislation is and will be the act of Remaining within the EU. Even if what our MPs – who may actually believe what they are saying – tell us otherwise.

I would like to be able to say that the reality that underpins all of this is also simple to understand. But it is not.

In fact, we have to go right back to the travesty that was the first European Referendum to even begin trying to unravel the direction of travel in what we now know to be the EU.

That was when the ‘Common Market’.or what our parents and grandparents thought and supported to be a simple trading relationship – not massively unlike the explanation of a Customs Union that I have outlined above – on a journey to become the single market and with it the progressive harmonization of laws which go way beyond simple trade.

This resulted in growing mistrust, many questions and above all the decision to Leave the EU. A result that has only appeared to be so near or close to balance, because many still have no apparent reason to question all that is involved.

The term ‘progressive’ is one that has been adopted for a certain style of politics that Remainers often use and one that encapsulates how the EU operates too.

But the political use of ‘progressive’ as a term is actually a misnomer. One that is used to manipulate people into thinking that they are being offered a type of politics and legislature where the only direction of travel in policy is always forward and therefore will only ever have positive impacts for us all.

It all works a little like building a house. Once the house is built, you then decorate. Once it has been decorated you install the equipment. Once the equipment has been installed, you bring in the furniture. Then you move in with your family and to keep things as you perceive they should be, you lay down a few rules.

In this same vein, the ‘Common Market’ or trade agreement led to the Customs Union that then created a shared marketplace or ‘Single Market’. To make sure that the playing field of this ‘Single Market’ was level, it was deemed essential to ensure that all goods are manufactured to the same standards and the same rules. To make sure there is no way for an industry or sector in one member state to gain an unfair advantage in any other way, this meant that the tentacles of legislation then had to reach out to areas like employment law and the European Working Time Directive.

Before you know it, the EU is rewriting the laws that underpin just about every part of life, ultimately creating social problems and changing the very way that we identify as a culture.

And the EU keeps legislation moving progressively to make the rules the same for everyone across 28 very different Countries without fear of consequence because the ideas underpinning this new but nonetheless undemocratic way of doing politics through the de facto and unquestioned implementation of rules is not something that most people see coming.

We certainly don’t understand there has actually been a change when it has arrived in our lives under the auspices of something completely different and much less insipid than the very dangerous truth and reality behind it.

The reality is that we are having our identity stolen by the back door and this process has been facilitated by MPs who should know better.

They don’t because they are ignorant of the truth.

They are only interested in their own glory, rather than having to think through the implications of their actions.

They avoid and therefore neglect a process that we once trusted them to undertake automatically. Because that’s what responsibility to the Electorate actually involves.

It is no use saying that the alternative of the UK becoming again fully Independent as a Nation State will be easier than being a member of and rule taker from the EU because it isn’t.

However, it also doesn’t make it right. Nor does it mean that it will deliver the right things for the UK.

The truth is that there is very little being said by even the Leave side of the debate about the true cost of remaining within the EU and being in any way tied and obligated to it. Never mind the price that we as a Country have already paid.

In fact, the whole Brexit and EU Referendum debate has, is, and looks like it will continue to be very short on facts, whilst remaining subject to the knee-jerk and quick-win approach that has already created so much of the pain that has already been involved.

If the arguments were to be thought out, translated and then effectively made without bias or self-interest, there is no doubt that the argument in favour of the compromises required for continued membership and indeed a relationship of the kind being sold by Theresa May and many on the Labour side of Parliament would not actually be seen as compromise anymore.

It would be seen as being worse than the subjugation to a Foreign power that we have been on the end of for far too long. Subjugation that the Vote to Leave the EU on 23rd June 2016 stated clearly to our MPs had already gone too far and MUST be stopped.

Yet at the same time, no detailed and comprehensive case for Leave has been made.

Without it, the anger and frustration which is now going to drive and fuel a clean Brexit, possibly outside of any form of reasoned control, will not lay the foundations of what an Independent and fully Sovereign UK will then look like.

It will certainly not begin to provide the basis upon which we can then build a genuine and dynamically balanced working relationship with our neighbours in the EU. The solution, result and aim that we must all work for after Brexit has been properly delivered, if the differences that now exist between us in the form of Leave vs Remain are ever to be satisfactorily resolved.

 

The Conservative Party MUST have a New Leader, New Manifesto AND New Electoral Mandate BEFORE 31 October – AND they ALL have to be just right

April 25, 2019 8 comments

img_3013When Parliament has already voted to overrule the Executive, a Party Grandee who has been a Party Member for longer than the lifetimes of many MPs leaves to stand for a protest party, and Conservative Councillors and even MPs too are telling the media they are about to Vote against their own Party in an upcoming Election, anyone with enough sense and concern for what is going on around them would know that what is happening no longer fits with any rules they know. They would accept that following those rules is not now going to bring the situation to a close.

That our lawmakers have no real appreciation for the responsibility they have been given by the Electorate has now become painfully obvious to the People outside of Westminster.

Worse for all conservatives, whether members of the Party, tribal voters or simply lapsed, is the realisation that a horrible reality is now becoming manifest in Westminster. One where there are simply not enough Conservative MPs in the Parliamentary Party that have the understanding, stamina, wherewithal and everything that it takes to deal with a serious crisis – not one created by any external threat, but by something made manifest from within its own walls.

Those who observe and consider the steps of the journey that Brexit has taken will eventually realise that the decisions made by Theresa May and her enablers since June 2016 – right up to the 1922 Committee’s decision last evening not to put the flames out engulfing the Party that are now in open sight for all to see, have and are continuing to fuel a fire that has not only taken the Conservative Party to the edge of the precipice, but is on the verge of condemning the whole of the UK to political, if not civil chaos too.

We have reached a point where the true chronology of events that led to the Vote to Leave the European Union, the mess of the Brexit Process and the now the critical condition of our democracy too, is in imminent danger of being forgotten and responibility for all ills being laid squarely at the feet of the only Political Party genuinely capable of getting the UK through Brexit and to the promise of the opportunities that lie ahead for us all on the other side.

It is painful for many to admit that the disease within the Conservative Party may have already been allowed to spread too far. That if the majority of the MPs that are still obstructing change from within the Conservative Parliamentary Party do not put their self-interest, fear and obsession with maintaining a system that now, thanks in no small part to them no longer exists, that not only will the Party that gifted them their time in the public eye be gone, but the Country itself could be thrown into chaos and darkness of a kind that those amongst us still alive to remember the consequences of such times had long since hoped had been left behind.

People who I and many have time for and respect from right across the political spectrum, are now falling in behind Nigel Farage to support the Brexit Party.

Any serious conservative with an eye on the future and what happens next would be foolish not to read the electoral runes right at this moment in time and see what is about to happen to British Politics during the Month of May.

But whilst one of the key straplines of this very serious and credible protest party is changing politics for good, the Brexit Party only has the cohesiveness between its Membership and support provided by just one issue.

This commonality between Brexit Party supporters will evaporate the moment that the promise made to respect our democracy and Leave the EU has been made good.

In days and certainly no more than weeks, the Conservative Party has a final and defining choice to make about the part that it wants to play and can offer the British People as a choice for the future.

If the Conservative Party does not choose to take it, the Brexit Party could well become the overwhelming force in domestic British Politics that UKIP never could.

The anger, palpable amongst the British People today that could so quickly be addressed with reason and delivery, could instead be completely unleashed.

Make no mistake. A Political Party without professional governance, systems and procedures is not going to deliver the overnight change it is now promising us – even if it currently benefits from having many well known and well meaning names up front which gives it an even more credible feel.

The choice that the Conservative Party has to make is whether to do nothing and allow May to continue in a way that only she seems to know how. Or to commit to a hard-decision-laden and timely process that will require unbending commitment, coolness of character and dedication to a cause much bigger than themselves and their Party, all boiled down to the willingness to do whatever it will take to get things done.

Step 1. A NEW Leader

May MUST go.

May MUST go now.

May MUST be replaced quickly.

This is not the time for an incumbent PM to be allowed to run down the clock in an attempt to let history look more kindly upon her tenure than anyone actually does right now. It won’t.

The ridiculous infighting, self-interest and ambition that have created so much of the Brexit impasse and constipated version of Parliamentary Politics we have witnessed over the past year has to stop and be consigned to the bin.

There MUST be a practical acceptance of the reality that right now, in this climate and with our Country facing the issues that it is, that there is no such thing as the ‘best’ or ‘Perfect’ candidate to be Prime Minister. It is now all about putting the person into the role who will be best placed to get results and yes, get the job done.

Under such circumstances, there is little doubt that whilst far from a perfect situation, the Party Membership would support an immediate ‘crowning’ of a new Party Leader and de facto Prime Minister, AS LONG AS THE PARLIAMENTARY PARTY APPOINTS THE RIGHT PERSON IT HAS AVAILABLE.

As recent polling work undertaken by the Conservative Home Website has shown, which is reliable for gauging the mood of the grassroots Party, the Membership wants a Brexiteer PM in Downing Street.

By far, the PM that the Membership wants is Boris Johnson.

The lack of understanding and appreciation of what really gets results, instead replaced with private ambition and the idea that each and every Member of the Cabinet is the only one who really knows best and can be the next Prime Minister, is precisely why so much of this has gone wrong already.

Trying to control or obstruct a workable solution to these problems for personal reasons, rather than doing what’s best for everyone, no matter how challenging or distasteful or unpalatable the alternative might be, is likely to replace one bad Prime Minister with another. Not because the alternatives aren’t capable or any good at what they do. But because they cannot be the person to bring together the formula that this Country needs right now and effectively become the necessary catalyst for change and for good.

Boris is very electable, as has been demonstrated by his highly effective campaigns to become and to be re-lected London Mayor.

Yes, Boris has a propensity to look silly at inappropriate times. But he also identifies his own destiny as being closely aligned with the success of the people and the policies that he leads. And as Prime Minister he will know that he MUST surround himself with the full range of best talents and voices. To be inclusive, but to make sure that the results achieved are good for all parts of our society and not just those who are directly involved.

This is where the opportunity lies for all who can see, accept and facilitate what now needs to be done to align themselves, contribute and for their genuine ambition to do good for others to be recognised fully for the part they play in delivering for the much bigger Public cause.

2. A NEW Manifesto

No. Oddly the next step IS NOT to worry about Brexit and the EU.

For right or for wrong, we now have until Thursday 31st October 2019 to sort out the Brexit mess and to get things done.

That’s 6 Months. And with a week being a long time in politics, as long as the Conservatives get moving quickly AND do all that needs to be done, 6 Months will be plenty of time enough.

The first priority is to create, promote and engage the public with a NEW Manifesto.

A Manifesto that demonstrates:

  • That the kind of working relationship that WE ALL want with Europe can only be created and developed once we are a fully Independent and Sovereign State once again and that to do this WE MUST FULLY AND CATEGORICALLY LEAVE.
  • That the Conservative Party is NOT only the Party of the rich, but the Party of all those with aspiration. The protector and safe-guarder of all those in genuine need and all those who want to succeed as a result of genuine effort and not riding off the backs and exploitation of others. A Party which really is for ALL of us too.
  • That Politics is in fact the means and not the ends to get things done. That it is a calling, not a job and that those who gain the very special and privileged elevation to Public Office must be able, prepared and committed to engaging fully foremost and as a priority with the People that they represent.
  • That good governance of this Country can no longer be something regurgitated from history, read from a book, accepted as an established rule or contrived on the basis simply of how it will look.
  • That decisions will be taken no matter how hard, to ensure that Government delivers fully for everyone, without bias, favour and with fairness as we are all right and justified in expecting that it should.

It will not take months or years to formulate.

The Conservatives only have to look beyond themselves and begin to engage everyone in a natural conversation, without the hard sell and without falling back on statistics and analysis to confirm what being out there will soon tell them should then be a quickly changing mood.

3. A New Mandate

With a New Leader and New Manifesto, the Conservative Party then MUST go back to the People.

It MUST have the faith, confidence and guts to know that if the Party has done Steps 1 & 2 right, the People will come back and provide the Party with a New Mandate.

A New Mandate that is required not only to break the Brexit impasse that can only come from our clean-break Leaving the EU. But to deliver the change that the People now require of our politicians. So that the UK can find its place and ensure that we are all secure in an ever changing World, where the agility and flexibility that our status as an Independent and Sovereign State is the only way that we can effectively adapt as a Country to ensure that we can continually work together towards the prize of something better for all.

 

 

 

 

 

Brexit will soon be the winning argument behind electoral failure if Brexiteers don’t accept that the collective result is far more important than individual glory

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The world has changed since Brexit. Things have moved on politically in more ways than one. And all the key players – whoever we might agree or disagree they then were, are now in very different roles or are facing circumstances which are very different indeed.

Whilst it would be vastly unfair to others and genuinely incorrect to portray Nigel Farage as the man who won Brexit, we must not fall in to the same trap that May did of either ignoring or deliberately overlooking his role.

However, whilst events in Westminster this past week have finally precipitated Mr Farages return to the fray, the talking up of his new Brexit Party having the same or even increased support from the pre-Referendum UKIP of old might prove to be generous, misleading and potentially very bold indeed.

Whilst the considerable Remain element within the Westminster bubble continue to do everything possible to argue that support for or departure from the European Union is no longer of the level that it once was, a trip out to the Shires, Towns and Leave Constituencies, and a discussion with one or two real people out here soon brings you to the real understanding of where things really are – despite all that we are publicly being told.

One step further and an hour or two following a wide range of journalists and political commentators online, on TV or even reading the Papers and you will soon begin to see how that support for Brexit is manifesting. It is very different to the time when it was just about the question of Leave or Remain.

The support that Farage et al simply expect to transfer to the new Brexit Party shows signs of not moving en bloc as their understandably angry Leader might have perceived.

UKIP, despite its leap towards Islamophobia and Stephen Yaxley Lennon aka ‘Tommy Robinson’ has not withered away and died. This much we know from the increased margin they gained in the Newport West By Election.

Yet the most interesting smoke signal wafting up from the other side of the Severn Estuary is the presence of a growing number of independent and smaller party candidates. A phenomenon being played out in the campaigns of local government elections across the country which are underway now.

A list of local, independent and protest driven candidates in a by election is nothing new. But it is worthwhile looking at how many are now coalescing around support for Brexit, and understanding from this that the Brexit Party might have a fight on its hands that it wasn’t expecting.

The Brexit Party and UKIP have a fight developing with other pro-Brexit parties. When they offer small one-off candidatures, they might only make minimal difference. But as the sum of all parts, they could actually undercut what should now be the vote winning topic of the Century where one party unifying all the people in favour of Brexit and British Democracy could very easily gain the electoral influence to be in government, at very least in influential part if not in actual working majority form.

Today there is any number of Leave focused organisations coming into view. All of them talking up fielding candidates using language suggesting that each and every one of them has the unique formula to win and beat the Brexit-betraying main Political Parties, when what they are doing is little more than mimicking the attitudes and approaches of the very same Politicians they want to and we all know deep down that must be replaced.

The upshot is that what should be a sizeable and potentially election-winning majority at any election could now be split 3, 4 or perhaps many more ways.

It doesn’t take much more consideration to understand that such a result could easily see any of the candidates that need to be ousted potentially coming back up though the middle, once again gifted a majority they should never have been trusted with, and as such returned.

Working together, representatives of the leave majority in the UK have the ability to overturn everything wrong that this parliament and theresa May has done.

But if the desire of individuals to get elected, become MPs and get on TV or Radio is not superceded by the need to work collectively and as one, things could get dramatically worse for us all, not just in terms of being stitched up in our relationship with the EU, but in respect of all the injustices that need to be fixed beyond.

For a new and decisive way forward to be guaranteed, Brexiteers will have no option but to gather together candidates and support in one destination. They have to build and develop a Party that is electable not only because it has the numbers, BUT is also palatable to a wider audience than just those who have always been predisposed to Leaving the European Union.

Doing so will be no easy task as those whom ever had dealings with the pre-Referendum UKIP found out.

No matter what political party or movement people join up to to become actively involved, the default setting of doing something worthy for those putting themselves forward as speakers, activists and candidates are all-too-often overshadowed by the intoxication of perceived glory of their role.

With it goes any chance of accepting that contributing as much or as little as it would take from each and everyone of us to get the job done is often as much as it will take, and not everyone can or even should want to be an MP or PM if we are really minded that we want to get the job done.

In the established parties, embedded structures have been successful in ensuring that candidates in the majority would speak publicly with pretty much one attitude and voice.

Problems quickly come when that structure and experience is absent. This was the case with UKIP. And even though it had existed for two decades at the time of the EU Referendum, it never possessed the inherent experience and knowledge of a frontline presence in government required to train and contain those involved. As a result, it simply suffered from the damage and disruption caused by lone, overexcited and unbridled voices that suddenly in possession of a public platform fell into the trap of believing that everyone around them fighting to Leave the EU had ideas that echoed exactly the same thoughts as their own.

With Brexit itself having become the story through no fault of its own, the many causes and contributing factors of the will to Leave the European Union – themselves being far from being black and white and constitutionally constructed of many shades – have not and are not being considered or addressed by any of the political organisations currently elected or otherwise. There is simply no sign that they are going to be either, by anyone who is involved.

Any Political Party or Movement seeking to get a full, proper Brexit delivered and British Democracy back on track, has to have a manifesto and raison d’etre that reaches across all of this and beyond. One that is fundamentally constructed on foundations which are much mush deeper than the question of simply whether the UK should Leave the EU or Remain.

Although the current political landscape not only changes daily, but seemingly by the hour, it would be foolish to say that there are not other possibilities that we cannot right now foresee as being able to deliver the solutions that we should now all be talking about.

Yet if we were to look at the options as they stand before us today, they are likely to be limited to a completely new Movement borne of all the Brexit factions which have sprung up and exist. Or as an offshoot or reboot of the Conservative Party, which if it were to suddenly grow up and start functioning properly, would always have the advantage of an existing party machine.

For a new Party to come out of the Brexiteer factions and be successful to the level needed, all of the established groups and yes, Parties and their candidates and leaders too will have no option but to leave those identities and whatever kudos they currently perceive themselves to have, behind.

The movement which will right all the wrongs not only brought to the surface by the Brexit Betrayal, but reaches way back into years and perhaps decades of our political history beyond, will not be created, developed and led by politicians who treat it as their own form a vanity project – the very same reasons that everything we see in politics today has gone so utterly and completely wrong.

I don’t honestly know where the best place would be to start or to begin when it comes to the Westminster picture, as emotions are now so entrenched, it will not be easy to get so very many fired-up activists and people to stand back and accept that not pushing for a frontline role might be the best way for them to contribute to ensure that we all work as one, together and collectively get along.

But if you are a Brexiteer and your immediate thought, emotion or feeling is that you alone have the best ideas and everyone else should be using your ideas and falling in behind, you need to stop, look, listen to all the muppets we already have in Westminster and accept the reality that you are attempting to sing the same old song.

Voting for a Brexit Party just became a serious option for many of us, but we need a political movement ready to tackle the causes of Brexit too

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It feels like we have been taken to the edge, just for Theresa May to go off again many times before. Yet the content of her speech from Downing Street last night not only put an entirely different reality on the table for the Brexit process, but for British Politics and the wider possibilities of what we could all be about to experience in the UK too.

The frustration and yes, anger over the Brexit betrayal and the actions of many of our MPs is becoming palpable in the world outside Westminster.

If you take time to read, absorb and interpret the messages that are pumping out across social media, you will see that talk of alternatives to the three main Political Parties has been growing. Even frontline Conservatives are now publicly questioning their allegiance to a Party that has completely lost its way under May and are on the verge of looking for a new political home.

The passion out there is growing. There are clearly a great many people who are adding their voices to a mix that not only includes those ready or already committed to taking their vote away from the Conservatives, Labour or Liberal Democrat Parties – perhaps as early as the Local Elections set to be held next month. But many more who are set to support anything which resembles a movement ready to respect and deliver Brexit and do whatever it will take to get the job done.

Because of the mess that the overriding majority within today’s political culture has created, we cannot overlook the impact of the influence that new political vehicles such as the Brexit Party led by Nigel Farage could now inflict.

There are others in the making along the same lines too. And with the strength and evolution of Public resentment now coming directly into the mix too, these are very real entities that within weeks could be getting Councillors, MPs and yes, MEPs elected, representing that focus, frustration and anger, but also bringing to the table a lot of additional unknowns too.

The real danger in all of this, is that at a time when this Country needs something fundamentally different from the current Public Representation that we have at all levels, we could be about to get something far less refined. Something that is nonetheless fundamentally equipped with the same views, aspirations and understanding as the current crop of politicians that we have.

I say this, because the majority of MPs and Councillors now representing us had the same kind of passion, outlook and energy themselves when they first ventured into this horrid excuse for a political system that we have.

Few with such aspirations enter the world of politics without reference to a commitment to public service at some level at least. But the structure, nature and mechanisms of the political and government system as it is and has been for a very long time have made the majority of our political class little more than willing but nonetheless passive participants in a legislature incapable of breaking new ground, of original thinking or of taking the people and businesses of this Country to the destination where we are all considered properly and as a priority by public policy. A place where we can be confident in the Country and communities around us which are not the EU’s, but very much our own.

Why is this important?

It is important, because being an MP, Councillor or whatever an elected representative in the UK might be, is not just about getting elected alone.

The responsibilities of finding yourself elected are far reaching. So even if a majority of MPs were to be elected to Parliament from just one or from a number of Brexit Parties, we have to ask the very serious question about what happens to law making in this Country when a proper Brexit has been delivered and the manifesto promises of speakers like Farage have been achieved and their value has effectively gone.

Brexit lifted the giant rock that has been covering everything that is wrong with politics and government in the UK.

Many of our politicians don’t even understand the complexity of the issues upon which they are voting for. A reality brought into painful focus by the fact that Conservative MPs were being taught to understand a Customs Union only this Monday, after they have been voting on its possible use in a deal with the EU for weeks if not months already.

Political tribalism – that’s voting for the three main Parties, is the default setting in this Country.

This means that once Brexit is done and dusted – which it will be, that without a credible alternative to what we have now in place that has a direction equivalent to wholesale change, voters will ultimately return to the Parties they used to vote for once the mess is gone.

Be under no illusion, they will be voting for the same attitudes, same self serving behaviour and same contempt for the lives of others that we are experiencing the tail end of right here and now, if the Parties that we know in Westminster today are not subject to fundamental and far-reaching reform.

There is a distinct absence of principles, ethics and morality within our political class today. This is the biggest problem of them all.

For if these attributes existed to any great degree in Westminster already, we would not be anywhere near the Brexit chaos in which this Parliament has guided our pathway to become entwined.

If as the result of some grave misfortune we still were, such qualities would be guiding us away from a place where May could be about to make a deal with the Devil just to save her own role and perceived legacy. And those MPs exhibiting them would be doing everything necessary to put this Country first, which means bringing the career of this Prime Minister to its end – knowing and in spite of the fact that it would be at risk to their own.

There is imply no way to plan ahead from the place that this and a succession of Parliaments has brought us today and the paralysis will remain until the reality of this has had its say.

The only way that we will find ourselves as a Country again will be if our MPs start doing the right thing in the moment, instead of being obsessed with controlling everything else other than that which is theirs to control.

 

Whatever the Brexit deal, our inability to leave at will makes it a prison cell and arbitration will not be a key to unlock the door

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Whilst the whole exercise has been played up as a cause for hope that May’s tragedy of a ‘deal’ will pass in the next two weeks, the reality of Geoffrey Cox being sent off to Brussels to negotiate a by-pass to the Backstop, has been nothing more than an elaborate play on time.

The fact that the goalposts have now moved to a discussion with the EU which has already again ruled out a time clause or unilateral exit mechanism, and moved on to a one-sided debate about arbitration instead should be telling everyone, everything once again that they should already know.

May’s deal is not a deal. It is a deliberate, intentional and malevolent trap which will be the equivalent of a prison cell for the UK, unless we retain the ability to walk away from it unilaterally and without the consent of any other party, at any time.

That the EU are currently insisting that an arbitration mechanism would have to involve the ECJ again demonstrates just how essential it is to them that the deck is not only stacked in their favour, but in respect of Brexit, is well and truly rigged.

Even if Cox should succeed in an agreement for a third-party system of arbitration without the ECJ being involved which could be argued as being impartial and therefore fair, it’s use overlooks the fact that arbitration, mediation, dispute resolution or any other system of negotiation that you could ever wish to involve in circumstances in any way similar to these, only determines the terms under which an agreement is or can be reached, and how things go forward from that point thereafter.

Arbitration is not a system that is there to make the decision to do something for anyone. It is about method and nothing more.

To use arbitration as a method of making a choice would in effect be the surrender of decision making responsibility to a third and non-involved party to make that choice for and on behalf of one and/or both parties.

It takes the decision at the very heart of the problem away from the two constituent parties that are involved.

That is why the EU will not even consider the option unless it’s own Court system, the ECJ is the elected arbitrator and therefore the decision would always be beneficial to them rather than the UK.

It is both sad and highly regrettable that so many opportunities have been missed to stop Theresa May and for the whole Brexit process to have been taken a different and fundamentally beneficial-to-the-UK way.

Now, the excuse we have for a Parliament is on the verge of selling out everything to nothing more than Foreign Rule, because the EU have placed a very good bet that Remainers and those other Politicians in the majority who cannot see beyond their own fears and self interest, would cave in at the last minute and back this travesty of a so-called agreement which is the bastard child and legacy of Theresa May.

Whilst Malthouse offered a sensible compromise for anyone who genuinely wanted to find a collective way forward, such plans are and never were in the favour of Prime Minister May.

The only option available to any MP who wants to see Brexit delivered and democracy in this Country existing after the time of May is to vote down May’s deal yet again and then vote for a no-deal exit on the 29th of March the following day.

Yes, the maths in Parliament now means that a delay is more likely than not. But the certainty that would have been available to this Parliament if May had been removed earlier is no longer available as a choice.

So without the control which is simply not present within any of the current choices, riding the wave and making the right decision each and every time there is one to be made is the only way that the right result for the People will be reached and a real Brexit delivered in the end.

Well, what did you expect?

February 26, 2019 Leave a comment

img_2694Obvious as it has appeared to be time and time again already, the Welching of Brexit has finally reached the point where it is all but impossible to deny.

In a statement delivered to the House of Commons at lunchtime, Theresa May officially opened the doors to extending Article 50.

This is an act that anyone who has studied the mayhem playing out from this Prime Ministerial Tragedy since 2016 will know to be significant, in that it is within the no-mans land which lies beyond the failure of this Parliament to take us out of the EU on 29th March 2019, where its real legacy of a non-Brexit or rather its Brexit betrayal will be completely defined.

In her speech to Parliament, the Prime Minister laid out a series of votes  to be held on (or before) the 12th, 13th and 14th March 2019 that in their very being, outline the framework of what the majority of our MPs believe. They make clear the depth of the gargantuan divide between what our Elected Representatives intend to work for and what the People instructed them to deliver in the European Referendum on 23rd June 2016.

May’s Brexit Withdrawal Agreement (by 12th March)

 

The first of the three votes will be a return of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement that was so crushingly defeated only a few weeks ago.

Whilst Ministers still trot out the line that it is the best deal available, the reality is that it is no such thing.

May’s Withdrawal Agreement ties us into the EU project even more closely that we are now. It gives us even less influence and provides no mechanism for us to depart under our own steam.

May never has any intention of pursuing a meaningful change to the Agreement with the EU that would either provide us with a unilateral exit mechanism or for the Backstop to be strictly time-bound.

It is clear that she and her coterie haven’t even asked, and that even if they had, as far as the EU was concerned, it was a request that would have always been denied.

Instead, there has been much rumour and lip service paid to a codicil or rewording of the political statement which accompanies the Withdrawal Agreement, which we should all now know would be cleverly be interpreted by the PM or her legal advisors as being a change which is legally binding for the purposes of this audiences, but when it comes to something we could expect the EU to honour, would never have even the remotest form of equivalence.

This will be a vote on Brexit in name only (Brino).

It is a plan to Remain in the EU, devised and delivered by Remainers.

It is not Brexit and not what the British People voted for.

Leaving the EU with ‘no deal’ on 29th March (by 13th March)

 

The second of the three votes would be to Leave the EU on the 29th March 2019 with ‘no deal’.

This is the only vote available to Parliament that will now ensure the proper Brexit that honours the Result of the European Referendum.

It will also be the most defining. Because this vote will directly record the action of each and every MP in respect of their support for Leaving the EU or seeking to Remain, contrary to the Will of the People.

Be under no illusion. There has never been any need for a ‘deal’ to Leave the EU. It is only the actions of these very same Remainer MPs as they have sought to obstruct, redirect and prevent Brexit that have guaranteed that the UK may not be as well prepared for a ‘no deal’ departure as we would have been.

Things would have been very different if they had got on with doing what they had been instructed to do in 2016, rather than spend most of the time since trying to work out how they could ensure the result was denied.

Whilst many cannot currently see it, it is only from the position of Leaving the EU without precondition, obligation or agreement of any kind, that we will then be able to lead the reconstruction of a relationship with the EU which promises to bridge the UK’s Brexit divide.

You cannot negotiate the future when you are obsessed with the past.

Sadly, the dynamic of our current Parliament, which doesn’t collectively believe that the Will of the People should be upheld, means that this vote will more likely than not be lost.

That is unless there is an attempt to precipitate a chaotic no deal departure as a cloud covering the intention behind a result that would lead to a very different thing.

The third of the three votes would be to extend Article 50 (by 14th March)

 

Regrettably, now May has explicitly made this option available, it is where we are most likely to end up, even though Conservatives are now likely to see the true split in the Party undeniably illustrated in all its glory and for all to see.

Forget talk of the Malthouse Compromise or any other ‘plan’ that could provide a credible rescue of Brexit whilst this Parliament is still in place.

May won’t accept anything other than her own plan as the way in which Brexit will be defined and now that she has had to move her own trip wire as the result of threats from Ministers who should have already resigned, she will only see the delay as a further opportunity to bring back exactly the same flawed Agreement.

Nothing has changed. Nothing will have changed. Nothing can change until May has gone from No.10.

A short extension in these circumstances will make no difference.

A longer one will only open up greater opportunities for Remainers to thwart Brexit and for the EU to demand even more from the UK within an Agreement which under proper Brexit-derived leadership would itself never have seen light.

The reality of May’s Brexit Welch and the post-29th March Debacle

 

This Parliament is incapable of delivering a true Brexit under the leadership of Theresa May.

With a new Prime Minister, this Parliament will remain hamstrung and even with a new workable deal agreed with the EU or with a commitment to Leave on WTO Terms and build a relationship from there, the numbers simply don’t suggest that anything ‘clean’ can be achieved whilst the current Parliamentary dynamic remains in force.

This should be of concern to us all, as there is the potential for this saga to continue until at least 2022, with incalculable consequences that could reach out way beyond.

General Election?

 

The default setting for sorting out a Parliamentary mess like this is to call a General Election.

The problem is that the Political Parties remain the same.

They are not offering anything any different to what they have been and what they are now, and that even if new names were to be elected, they would come back and offer us all exactly the same thing that they are right now.

Exciting as the launch last week of the Independent Group last week might to some feel, they are not offering anything different. In fact they are more like a refined or distilled version of everything that is wrong with politics in this Country today. They would be best suited to the mantra ‘do as I say, whilst I do otherwise and certainly don’t pay attention to anything that I do’.

Likewise, the Brexit Party may well be destined by a failure to launch and suffer many of the same problems that faced UKIP. It’s not because there isn’t validity and support for what it is they are trying to do. But because the viewpoints providing influence are far too narrow and where organisation and administration is concerned, there is a significant absence of professionalism involved.

To make a General Election work in the way that it now should, we actually need a completely new Party that is as diverse in its policy outlook as it is in its membership. Is professional, well funded, but above all motivated by and to deliver what is genuinely in the best interests of all – no matter how hard the process might be.

None of the existing Parties can offer this. TIG is not capable and the Brexit Party already looks too much like the single issue of Brexit will be the nature of its complete stall.

When you look at it all this way and consider the implications of the constipated democracy that we now have, it is very difficult to work out what we might now have in store.

Our current MPs wish to avoid a General Election at all costs. They would inevitably run again if one was called, and because of the current nature of the system, in many cases would find themselves being successfully recalled.

They wont stand down and step aside for others to take their place. And in times like these, there will now be an increasing number of us who find ourselves internalising a very alarming question.

Has the time arrived when this Country could be susceptible to a Coup?

 

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images thanks to unknown

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