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Posts Tagged ‘Experts’

Don’t get excited about the antibody test being available for everyone too soon – it doesn’t fit with the Government’s fag-packet plan

March 26, 2020 Leave a comment

It is inevitable – even whilst we are still going through the period of good will in response to the Government Shutdown – that rumours and stories about this or that which is going to make things ‘normal’ again is about to arrive and go off like a bomb.

Sadly, we are likely to go through this process many times, especially with media of variable quality and provenance coming at us each and every way.

The great hurdle-race of teases began yesterday with stories that a Coronavirus antibody test is being mass produced and would go on sale and be distributed by Amazon and Boots next week.

‘Game changer’ was a headline on papers and many Tweets alike, and it was very clear in the minds of isolation-weary people that less than 48 hours after the Prime Minister announced the shutdown, this could all be only days from its end.

Within what seemed like no time at all, the whole idea was shut down during the afternoon Downing Street press conference. It was made clear that the test wasn’t ready and wouldn’t be available to the general public in the first instance, even if it was.

The response to this brief period of untamed excitement and hysteria, from the Government and it’s advisers certainly raises questions about how long they really think this shutdown will be sustainable.

How exactly would the Government propose to manage a situation where let’s say half of the population has not had COVID-19 and is confined to their homes, and the other half has not?

Is the Coronavirus Crisis going to be over when everyone has lived through catching COVID-19 – whether they had symptoms or not? Will it be over when everyone is either immune via exposure or vaccinated with a vaccine yet to be discovered, tested and made. Or will the Crisis be over when the NHS can cope with the treating the critical proportion of everyone who has not been exposed – all at once?

What might be worth consideration is that the information concerning who has immunity and who hasn’t is going to be the most dangerous fuel that could be added to the fire that the Government choosing these measures and in particular this form of shutdown is destined to create.

Yes, we need health professionals tested and cleared as quickly as possible and as often as necessary so that they can either continue or return to their work.

But if everyone has access to this information at once and too quickly, there is a real danger that it will create a massive societal divide. A definable difference where the way this Crisis has been mismanaged could see those who can demonstrate they have immunity demanding a return to normality, whilst those who haven’t will experience nothing better than home imprisonment with the accompanying social blight.

How does the Government restore balance within the UK Community and its People then? A National Coronavirus Party like pox parties for kids? Throwing everyone into a room together and infecting them deliberately like the way they dealt with Smallpox here in the Eighteenth Century?

It would be ridiculous to think that life can resume for those who have had Coronavirus, whilst the shutdown continues for those who have not.

And herein lies the problem. Because the Government’s plan to manage this now has an indefinite timeline – if it is to succeed and get through to the stage where normal life can resume across the board – without civil unrest or even worse at first being involved.

The big problem with the approach the Government is taking – which sounds like an effective way to manage the spread and impact of the virus – is that at the same time it is creating an untold number of other problems.

None of the measures the Government is taking go far enough. They don’t consider or take care of the real impact of the physical shutdown for the wider population which by its nature demands that life should also be put on hold for them financially without cost thereafter, for the whole period of time that this specific plan the Government has enacted demands that people have no life outside and remain at home.

Sooner, rather than later, the inadequacies of the Government Strategy are going to be shown as it unravels. The pain for so many people that it will cause will be made all the worse because it was something that the Government chose not to avoid.

The reality is that no matter how much pain and personal tragedy we see paraded on the TV in front of us each and every day, the fallout from the poor decisions and inadequate action on the part of our Politicians right now is going to be far worse in the impact it will have through debt, the loss of income, the permanent closure of businesses and shops, bankruptcies, mental health issues and yes, the loss of lives through suicide and other forms of early death. The impact won’t only be visible just now in the days, weeks and months the shutdown might take. It will hide itself like every other injustice without a name, continuing to reap a terrible, unseen, but unnecessary harvest thereafter and for a very long time.

Whilst the academics, commentators and opinionati are busy dismissing the suggestion that such outcomes are possible because there’s no credible evidence in their view to suggest it could be right, the fact is that people in this Country are and have already been suffering for a very long time because we have had and still have the wrong politicians who have a completely shutdown, blinkered and self-serving idea of what is right.

 

 

Neither the Public or Business can service debt without income. The Chancellor’s Coronavirus ‘help’ is yo-yo politics that flashes in the face but simply doesn’t go that far

March 18, 2020 Leave a comment

img_5330The ineptitude of our politicians is stunning.

The problem that millions of people and businesses right across our country are facing is that their income has already stopped, soon will do, or at best is going to be severely reduced.

So what does the Chancellor do?

He sets them up with a loan.

And that’s for the specific people he has actually identified – certainly a long way from being them all.

We don’t know how long the Coronavirus Crisis will take to complete its course. We don’t know when ‘business as usual’ for any industry or occupation will be able to resume. We certainly don’t know if trading levels for any company will then have even the remotest possibility of returning overnight.

So when faced with losing either your wage or your business losing at least some, if not all of its trade, the last thing you need is a loan – even without interest – that is open ended in its value because you don’t know how long you will need it for; loans that will already be unaffordable to pretty much everyone because it’s not something that you have either made allowance in your monthly domestic outgoings or business income vs expenditure budgeting for.

img_5329For a Chancellor of the Exchequer – and a Conservative one at that – to not understand the implications of what would be no more than a cynical headline-grabbing plan in normal times would itself be very profound. For him to do it at a time of National Crisis, when people and business need genuine help to survive, whatever the duration, and then be able to return to their own normality at some point in the future whenever that might be is profoundly ridiculous at very best.

Whilst the Tory troops are lauding the whole effort and shouting plaudits suggesting that this is the best Chancellor we’ve ever seen, the reality is dawning on many people that the measures he has announced is little more than yo-yo politics, where what appears to be given to those in need at speed will just as quickly return to the hand of the giver on what is a deliberately transparent, yet firmly fixed string.

Regrettably, the approach that the Johnson government is employing in the handling of the Coronavirus crisis is akin to something that would fit right into the conspiracy theorists playbook.

Talk of confining the public to their homes for many months on end; the shutting down of public events, gatherings, and pubs and now a series of financial measures dressed in the rhetoric of being there to help and support us, whilst in its cold and hard reality does anything but.

At best, it all points to a disproportionate level of control being levied upon the public at large by an inept Government living in fear of its own responsibilities and driven by the interests of a very close cadre of financial and business interests that it feels unceasingly obliged to prioritise and serve.

God help us all in a few weeks if the Public become tired of what may well quickly prove be a misdirected overkill and people then take to the streets. Because all of this ineptitude on the part of a Government that thinks that with an 80 seat majority it can do no wrong, really will give currency to the words and actions of those who will prove themselves to be far more dangerous than fruitcakes and loons.

The Government has a level of power and the responsibility to use it at a time of National Crisis like this that it never has before.

We may not be at War. But the circumstances are potentially as severe nonetheless.

This means that the Government and in particular both the Chancellor and the Prime Minister have an incredible opportunity to step beyond the restrictions and shibboleths of so-called peacetime protocols and carry out the real functions of the Offices of State that they are there for.

But to do this they must lead and not be led.

No civil servant, no adviser, no specialist, no expert has the knowledge, training or experience to come up with the comprehensive solutions that will factor in everything that needs to be considered.

They certainly have no way to know if what they do suggest, advise or contribute will turn out being right.

That means listening to ALL of the advisors, specialists and representatives whilst keeping in mind that all of them will have their own bias and self interest in the solutions that they offer. But that even when the solution they offer might appear to work, it wont work for the many if it prioritises financial or other benefits to the few.

In the first instance, to be equitable and to be fair to EVERYONE and not just the usual suspects and same old few, our Leaders MUST instruct the Civil Service, Industry and the Financial Sector what the solution will be and not make it voluntary for them to support or options that they can choose on the basis of it being like advice.

Breaking completely new ground it might be, but if Boris wants to go down in history as the PM who saw this thing through the right way and got the job done, this talk of £300 Billion in the underwriting of loans and grants needs to be scrapped immediately and replaced with radical Standstill Legislation with key points like these addressed fully in clear and unhindered view:

What the Country needs:-

  • People and businesses don’t need debt relief or loans for the duration of the crisis. They need the payments to completely STOP.
  • We ALL need payments for non-essential services and items to STOP.
  • People who have been laid off need surety that their jobs will continue to exist.
  • Interest payments of any kind need to STOP.
  • People who are self-employed or working in the gig economy need the same basic income as everyone else affected too.
  • HMRC needs to go on holiday and open the VAT window for collections to at least 6 months from 3 or even more – WITHOUT levelling interest.
  • People who have been laid off or have had their wages reduced need the surety of a basic income just to pay for food.
  • We need the Government to step in takeover every service that was formally in public hands so that essential utilities and services can be provided to EVERYONE who cannot work, trade or keep going as normal for the duration of the crisis FOR FREE – Not paying the retail bill for every household and business, but by taking over and underwriting the whole supply chain so that there is no profit taking at any level remaining involved.

What we don’t need:-

  • A Government unable to look beyond the restrictions of what advisors advisors tell it is possible, what it has done, or what history tells us that it can do.
  • The same pockets being lined with profit now during this crisis as they are in normal times

Above all, the solution that will work now and for the future must be applied on a blanket basis.

By taking over and underwriting essential services and ensuring that EVERYONE has at least a basic income that will cover the cost of a weeks food, the Country and everyone not working within it will be in the best place during the crisis to financially survive and then thrive once this terrible chapter has ended and is over.

The benefit for those who continue working in roles like the emergency services and in our hospitals, the benefit in kind will be that they receive a payment holiday whilst they are working. That’s a sensible and fair bonus for doing their bit for community whilst we all do our bit for each other to ensure to survive.

 

images thanks to dreamstime.com

 

 

 

 

 

Even if the Government has ‘reports’ on the UK’s future after Brexit, it would remain foolish to rely on expert opinion about an event which hasn’t already taken place

December 27, 2017 Leave a comment

download (9)Brexit has been created by a phenomenon, the elements of which many of us are still failing to understand. For non-decision makers, this is just a social problem between people who are usually friends. But for our politicians it has now become an elaborate game of pin the tail on the donkey which risks much more than a simple prick to the finger if they get their blindfolded judgement wrong.

The exquisite mix of having a government led by people who do not believe in what they are doing, trying to deliver working solutions to problems that they do not understand would in any other situation be recognised for what it is. But politics has regrettably moved on from an age when it really was in some way chivalrous – if it ever really was, and power being all, is all it has now become.

This insidious environment does not lend itself well to the power of original thinking. Trust has become as interchangeable with myth as proof has become with fiction, and unrelated history has become the benchmark of reliability against the future that we can also not personally see.

Measuring the possible impact and consequences of Brexit against such a backdrop is therefore down to either fortune telling – which is at best no more than ‘an educated guess’, or of relying upon economic viewpoints and philosophies which have been developed on the basis of events that have already passed, rather than what will actually happen in the future.

Put simply, nothing like Brexit has happened before and nor will it happen again, as even the smallest difference – perhaps down to the outlook of just one of the key players involved, could deliver an outcome which we could never imagine.

That the Government and Ministers responsible for any part of the Brexit process may or may not choose to rely upon reports which have been devised in this way and within this unique set of circumstances, is perhaps more about their own take on the opinion of others, rather than anything we could really label as setting out to deceive.

Whether they be Specialists, Experts, Economists or not, it is little more than opinion that they actually give and we would all do well to remember that even then, nobody has the ability to offer such ‘expert analysis’ of an event which has not already taken place.

Yes, we all have concerns about what is to come as a result of Brexit. But staying within Europe would not in any way have meant that a stable future of any kind was assured. And it remains worthy of note that whilst Brexit may prove to be temporarily challenging for us, for the UK to have remained a member of the EU may in time have proven to be truly catastrophic.

image thanks to fortune.com

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