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Posts Tagged ‘No deal’

If Boris wants a legacy as a stand-out leader, now is the time to accept he cannot deliver a real Brexit alone

November 1, 2019 Leave a comment

GE2019dNigel Farage has publicly made his offer of an Electoral Pact with Boris Johnson’s Conservatives this morning, outlining an approach that makes all too clear the danger that now looms in December’s General Election from a split Leave Vote.

Sadly, many Conservatives have bought into the propaganda that Boris’ deal is actually Brexit in the most basic sense. That being the UK can walk away from the arrangement at any time without any consequence for the Union or any part of it being involved, or there being any form of political trade off or compromise required from people who will not do the right thing.

To be clear, they, we, the UK cannot walk away trouble-free from Boris deal at any time – once it is signed.

As such, Boris’ deal remains as good only as Theresa May’s. It is Brexit in name only.

The value in Boris’ deal – if there was any – was that because it is technically Remain, it won support in the Commons.

In this context alone, look at the re-admittance of the hard-Remain contingent on the Tory  benches in Parliament to calculate what Boris’ deal actually is.

But things have moved on. For better or worse, Boris now has a General Election at his feet and he is no longer obliged to continue pushing a deal of any kind.

This is the moment when he has the opportunity to create the clear blue water between the Conservatives and the other Parties in Parliament that he has always wanted.

But the political realignment that is underway in this Country also dictates that the way for the Conservatives to achieve this is not now and never will be in any way the same.

To be the leader and have the legacy of the leader that Boris wants to be and believe that he is, he now has two weeks to understand, accept and embrace the reality that to be that Prime Minister he has no choice but to lead in a very different way.

If the Brexit Party field Candidates in every Constituency – as Farage has confirmed this morning, the chances are that the Leave Vote will be split right across the Country and the very best that Boris can hope for will be the same as 2017 when the Conservatives were led by Mrs May.

If Boris wants to be remembered as the PM who delivered Brexit, he now has to work with others and lead a group who share the core objective of a clean, no-deal Brexit – so that the UK has complete control over everything that follows afterwards and there is no more EU-driven chicanery involved.

The majority that Boris wants in order to achieve things simply will not come from the Conservatives continuing to go it alone.

The British People want change desperately and the best way to begin that change is to change the way that this General Election is going to be done.

Please Boris, focus on the end result so that we all win. Don’t focus on winning over the means of getting there and end up with us all experiencing a massive loss.

 

 

Boris has one last chance to secure the Exit from the EU that the UK Voted for: Forget the bogus deal and campaign in the General Election for a clean Brexit

October 29, 2019 Leave a comment

With the shenanigans that have been taking place in Westminster now over many months, there is still a part of me – deep down – that questions whether even now, as Boris drops the WAB in a ‘last ditch attempt’ to secure a General Election in December – all of this is part of a very well thought out plan.

The question will probably settled once and for good by what happens next.

Whilst many are, nobody should be under any illusion that the WAB equates to or is the same thing as a proper Brexit, clean Brexit, no deal Brexit, or indeed the Brexit that the British People Voted for on 23rd June 2016.

It is not.

Yes, arguments can be made that the WAB provides a way out of the EU.

But ways out – when it comes to agreements of such magnitude like these, MUST be considered in the full context of what and more importantly who is actually involved.

They must not leave any outcome upon which people are depending to be left to the influence or at the whim of others at some future date.

Without the security of having the unhindered, unilateral ability to walk away from this so-called agreement with the EU at any time, this miss-mash of yet more passing the buck to someone else on another day to make it that other person’s problem is the fundamental basis upon which Boris’ deal has been laid.

It’s a dubious move that if genuine, represents all thats wrong with the way Government works in this Country and the way that politics has been used to play the electorate over recent decades. It led to Brexit itself, and with it what we are now experiencing as the destruction of our democracy.

If Boris continues with the WAB voluntarily once a General Election has been called, it is likely to be his downfall.

It will demonstrate his disdain for detail and the realities of British life whilst illustrating the EU-loving credentials of yet another Prime Minister for all to see.

Doing so will almost certainly mean that at best we have another hung Parliament after the Election, or at worst, there will be one led by a Marxist in power by Christmas.

The real and in all likelihood final opportunity – if Boris succeeds in securing the December General Election – will be for him to cut right through the middle of everything and go for the clean-break, no-deal Brexit that we had all hoped he had really arrived in No10 to deliver back in July.

By securing a General Election right now, without the bogus deal being agreed, Boris can win a General Election and secure the working majority that is needed in Parliament to deliver a meaningful Brexit.

But Boris will only win that General Election and secure the working majority that he needs by unequivocally making a real no deal Brexit his assured and only aim.

Boris must unite the Leave Vote if he is to prevent the Vote being split in far too many Constituencies for there to be any comfort for him involved.

To do this, Boris must ensure that every Constituency only has one identifiable Brexiteer Candidate on the Ballot Paper.

The process of doing so requires acknowledgement that the three demographic parts of the Leave constituency will always at best be split between the Conservatives and the Brexit Party – if the two separate entities are there as a choice on the day.

The heads will vote conservative.

The hearts will vote for the Brexit Party.

The floating Leavers in between, will vote on Election Day, for what they believe will at that point turn out to be the winning team.

It’s only be being united and working together that a General Election win for Brexit can readily be assured.

So Boris’ working ‘Brexit’ majority will be dependent upon other Brexit-orientated Parties agreeing a pact with him or otherwise simply stepping aside.

They are not going to do this if the WAB or anything that resembles it in the Conservative Manifesto is involved.

It’s time for some humility and real leadership from Boris and the recognition that it’s only a clean-break, no deal Brexit that will remove all the problems in the next Parliament that he is experiencing right now.

How he plays it now is purely down to his own personal choice. But it a game that could result in significant costs for us all.

 

 

If MPs pass this Trojan Horse of a deal, it’s going to cost us a lot more than a Referendum to get out of it once we all wake up

October 18, 2019 Leave a comment

article-2383977-0B66F6C300000578-983_310x466There is still a glimmer of hope that the ‘deal’ Boris has agreed with the EU was only a sprat to catch a mackerel. That it was only ever intended to be a device that would ultimately – by default – bring us to the no deal Brexit that the British People actually Voted for.

But with the big smiles and finger pointing covering the newspapers today – as if Boris now sees himself as latter day Kitchener, merely a century on – it must be said that the glimmer of hope is quickly diminishing with only 24 hours to the vote left in Parliament to go.

Whether its issue fatigue, fear, political expedience or simply an attempt to save their own necks and their jobs on the part of MPs, it looks increasingly like Boris might just get the majority necessary to take this Trojan Horse of a deal through, even if it is literally by just a couple of votes.

Whilst many commentators and members of the opinionati are playing up Boris’ result in negotiations with the EU and telling us that his deal is going to deliver Brexit – having gone a different way to May, the fact is that it isn’t any different in the sense that it still has the same fundamental flaws.

Boris’ deal will never allow the UK the trouble-free exit from the obligations to have agreements with the EU in place, without someone driven by their own agenda holding all the trump cards that are involved.

That in itself is travesty enough.

But there is more.

As I wrote on this Blog yesterday, there will be significant costs involved in the ‘UK’ Leaving this arrangement with the EU in the future. Costs that could extend well beyond anything that we would hope to imagine at this point – if it is passed into Law.

Whilst the self-serving politicians that we have today will hope that once ‘Brexit is done’, things will simply go back to being as they always seem to have been, with them and their kind continuing to run this Country without the political change and reform that we need, we are more likely to see the UK returning to the out-of-sight, out-of-mind process of ‘ever closer union’ with the EU, once the deal and transition process is complete.

I say this because they these politicians are not leaders. They will only ever continue to do anything and everything necessary to shore-up their position and make sure that they win the next vote.

Such pretenders shy away from real, hard decisions. The decisions that mean results and change for the better.

This shying away from responsibility can only mean one thing.

When we do have the political reform that is overdue and that many of us now know is coming to this Country, the miscreants who fill the benches in this Parliament today will have done nothing more this Saturday than to by-pass democracy and at the same time tie our future leaders hands.

The cost of Leaving this shoddy, hollow plan will almost certainly be the surrender of Northern Ireland, which this agreement effectively gifts to the EU and the Irish Republic, unless that is we continue to agree with all the things – now and in the future – that the EU wants – and we can be certain was always their plan.

But the cost could go further still.

With the EU still having just enough of a presence from the point that the dust from Boris Johnson’s deal settles, they will be able to continue drip drip dripping their very clever propaganda that the weak minded charlatans we have in Parliament today will pick up and chew like candy as they return to doing everything that Brexit stopped – the great UK silent giveaway.

We simply do not know what politicians who have shown they cannot be trusted will continue to giveaway behind closed doors.

That means that without the comfort of a relatively strait-forward exit device like Article 50 for this Country to use in future, the only way to reclaim UK Sovereignty and Independence – which is ours and in our hands to take back today – it could only then be regained by the UK fighting outside powers and yes, by going to war.

It is both beyond parody and very very sad indeed, that the people we have elected as politicians to represent us have reached the point where they are the best representatives that the EU ever had.

The only way to deliver Brexit was, is and will continue to be the way that the British People instructed Parliament and the Government to do so in 2016.

That was the democratic decision to Leave the EU without ties, obligations, both cleanly and without any form of Deal involved.

That option to Leave the EU remains on the table for at least the next 24 hours ahead. So we must hope that both the DUP and Remainers in Parliament stand firm.

Sometimes it is a most simple fact, that to get to the right place, we all have to take steps that at that point look very wrong.

 

image thanks to dailymail.co.uk 

 

 

 

Leaving the EU is now vital to secure the future of the UK and will positively impact the long term of everything that we do

October 8, 2019 Leave a comment

Today has been signifiant. Boris has already achieved significantly more than his predecessor Theresa May, and the chronology of events when we look back on the whole of the Brexit saga is likely to be seen to have pivoted on events that have happened today.

With Merkel saying her piece to Boris, followed by outbursts by Tusk and then Coveney on Twitter too, few of the objective people who are observing this saga unfold will have been left with any doubt about the content of the message that we have collectively been told.

The EU is and never was interested in compromise upon anything meaningful with the UK over Brexit, unless it resulted in a permanent state of Remain.

That they and the Irish Government thought that leaving Northern Ireland behind would ever be acceptable to the UK in order to secure mutually acceptable terms with the EU before Leaving is simply breathtaking in the extreme.

But the EU is an organisation that has form. And if our MPs had been fulfilling their roles as our representatives better – and arguably as they should – we would never have got to the place that we are, where the behaviour of the EU has had to be pushed to become so open and obvious, that many People across the Country are today wondering exactly what it was that we elected these MPs for.

What should now be clear to everyone, is the UK cannot thrive as it should, could and would do in the future, if we are tied to the EU and any of its Member States by even the most trivial policy devices – if they resemble anything that looks like Remain.

We must be able to set our own agenda in our relationships with the World outside. Set our own tariffs and border requirements. And most significantly write and implement all of the laws under which we are governed and required to observed as people and as businesses within.

We must do this because we the British People and the people from amongst us that we ask to represent us are the only people capable of knowing how to serve the interests of this Country best.

Only British People have the understanding of what our communities, businesses and public services need. And we need to have genuine localism working in our Cities, Towns, Parishes and Neighbourhoods in a way that centralising everything towards unelected bureaucrats in a European City never could deliver.

It is only if we do this, and are brave with the decisions that we make along the way and as we do so, that we can begin to address the real problems that are affecting our society. Knife crime, poverty, disenfranchisement, the housing shortage, the climate crisis and a whole lot more besides.

People have been suspicious of it, but might have never realised that many of the problems that we have in this Country have been created because of the way our law making has been exported to the EU. Rules have been changed and the responsibility for doing so given away to people with neither the interest nor understanding of what we all really need in this Country – the same basic responsibilities that UK politicians and MPs MUST be equipped with as a basic step in future, if their UK Lawmaking is to really do any good.

We cannot achieve anything genuinely good in and for this Country or indeed any of the other Countries and their Peoples around the World that we care for, if we Remain tied into the EU monolith in any way at all.

The EU has today proven that they are not interested in facilitating democracy. That they have no respect for it and that they are prepared to do anything and everything possible to keep what they clearly see as the UK cash cow, tied into the EU Project for good.

Its time that we all not only see but also accept that the UK’s best interests and the best interests of the EU are not, have never and will never be legitimately aligned or in any way the same.

We must Leave the EU as soon as possible and then reform our political system too so that neither Foreign Governments, the bureaucrats that represent them, or sell-out politicians of our own can prioritise outside interests.

The British People and our Industries are too important to be left to the whims of anyone who is on their own agenda and drunk on their sense of self importance and control.

 

It was always Leave OR Remain and Merkel has given the lie to the suggestion of anything else

October 8, 2019 Leave a comment

Whilst it has taken the arrival of Boris and the chaos we are now experiencing in Parliament to do it, It seems we now have clarity on the real position of the EU and those MPs obsessed with Remain.

In her response to No10 this morning, Merkel has made clear that the cost of the UK Leaving the EU as part of a deal, will be the ultimate surrender of Northern Ireland.

Whilst Remainer MPs are likely to keep on arguing that we cannot Leave the EU without a deal, we have reached the point where what many have suspected all the way since the Referendum has been confirmed: The so-called deal that Remainer MPs have been pushing for is the same thing as Remaining in the EU.

We now know that honouring the Referendum Result will not be achieved in any way other than for the UK to Leave the EU with a clean break. There is no middle ground to be had.

The Brexit Party looks increasingly like it’s all about a form of Brexit that works for them rather than a Brexit than can work for us all

October 3, 2019 Leave a comment

Whilst we should not have any fear of the purists version of a no deal Brexit, the painful reality is that without a Brexit-majority of MPs in Parliament, there would not be the will to weather the inevitable challenges and storm that would follow immediately after we Leave.

With the cold-hard-reality of an otherwise avoidable chaos staring real people directly in the face, this fearful Remain-collective-Opposition that we will have until at least the time of the next General Election would be then almost certain to succeed in taking the UK straight back in.

Whilst Boris’ proposed deal includes red-flagging words like alignment and suggests a more complicated approach to a relationship with the EU and its Members than those of us focused on the benefits of complete Independence might like, the murmurings this morning suggest that if the EU and Ireland can work with it, there could within days be the Parliamentary numbers to actually get this form of Brexit done.

The overall benefit that all genuine Brexiteers should now at least try to understand and accept with Boris’ deal if they possibly can, is that with majority support in Parliament for this form of Exit from the EU when it actually happens, Leaving with a ‘deal’ – which is itself is only a direction of travel rather than the permanent sellout that Theresa May’s deal was – will mean that the momentum has moved clearly away from the existing Parliamentarians who are so obsessed with rubbishing any form of Brexit, in order to Remain.

Leaving with this deal would then provide the opportunity at the next General Election to focus attention on the damage that over three years of obstruction in Parliament and the actions of the Remain-collective-opposition has done to our democracy and constitution. We will have the opportunity to really begin thinking about how the whole system operates, recruits the people the people who become our politicians and above all, how it must now be reformed.

The political terrain today simply does not lend itself to the practical realities of Leaving the EU on a no deal basis on day 1 and then keeping the UK out. 

For this reason and this reason alone, any Brexiteer suggesting that it would be better to hold out until they get every little thing they wanted – if a deal like this should prove acceptable to the EU and Ireland – is simply putting their own political ambitions first rather than being prepared to take the steps that in these circumstances are likely to be the best for everyone.

Just as UKIP and it’s forerunners cause was over the moment that the European Referendum in June 2016 was won, the Brexit Party needs to do the decent thing and accept that if Boris secures this deal as a pathway to Leave the EU that the UK can then at anytime walk away from, the job that their members and candidates signed up for will have already been done.

Being Boris alone was never going to be enough to get a deal with the EU where for anyone else there never was going to be one

October 1, 2019 2 comments

images-2We’ve been watching the malaise take hold and the chaos take over in Parliament now over a course of many months.

There have been innumerable opportunities for the Government, the Official Opposition and the current quasi-government-Remain-collective to go a different way.

But they have not.

When it came to Boris’ appointment as Prime Minister in late July, the reality is that events leading to that point gave him only a choice to go one of two ways.

Boris could have chosen to immediately take every step necessary to facilitate a General Election and use the opportunity not only to reengage but effectively re-enfranchise the Electorate with the world of politics as he did so. Or take the alternative pathway which was to choose to do what he has done.

Focusing on the UK position rather than engaging or seeking to proactively engage the EU in any way before a General Election was the only way that Boris had the chance to really stack the deck of cards in his favour when it came to taking everyone with him over a ‘no deal Brexit’.

Instead he seems to have chosen bluff, bluster and possibly blunder too as he, his Ministers and entourage have repeatedly preached passages from the unwritten rules of negotiation. They suggest that they are in control of a secret process that they are so on top of that they have been open enough to make everyone including the EU aware of.

The truth is they are and have been anything but.

Whether this play by Boris was deliberate or simply unintended at the start, the lack of care and consideration for the realities that underpinned the EU’s more realistic motives for insisting on the Backstop, have made everything he has done since July look like a very impetuous and self-serving choice.

The Backstop issue has and will always be resolvable. But it will only be complicated by any attempt to avoid the realities that underpin all the concerns that people have in Ireland about a return to a hard border alongside those for a future where the Province becomes tied into any system of governance where it no longer has any form of choice.

The deal that it has been indicated Boris is about to table to the EU and therefore also the Irish, is not one that demonstrates any kind of real choice.

It really doesn’t make best use of the opportunity to keep the border open. It simply relocates the physicality of customs checks that go with any hard border to an out-of-sight, out-of-mind location – which is failing to look the issues in the eye and therefore nothing more than a politically expedient choice.

As I wrote at length on the 1st of August, the technology and therefore the opportunity exists to create a free-flowing open border.

Yes, there is hard work and real negotiation that would need to take place as well as smashing down many of the institutional shibboleths that would obstruct this kind of thinking and practicality from outside of the box as the natural choice.

It is only the lack of foresight, understanding, political will and basically the objections of individuals – like all of the MPs that we now have blocking Parliament – preventing it from being a real option that the EU might not immediately like or endorse, but would accept as a very practical solution once they know that there is no way back from the UK / EU divorce.

As we look back over the summer and as we head towards the 31st of October exit date for the UK to Leave the EU, it increasingly looks like history will tell us that Boris was just another Prime Minister who squandered the opportunity to lead us properly, simply because he took what seemed like the easy choices right at the pivotal moments when no matter how hard it was he could have simply chosen the alternative option which was to do the right thing for all of us and not just for him.

I hope to be wrong on this. But from where I view all of this now, it looks very much as if Boris believed he could achieve results where others had tried and failed, just because he is Boris. All as if the Marvel Universe is no longer fiction, and a Prime Minister with superpowers based in London is a reality that has come to pass.

 

To download the PDF version of my 1 August essay on a Border Solution please click Beating the Backstop

image thanks to telegraph.co.uk 

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