The Conservative Party MUST have a New Leader, New Manifesto AND New Electoral Mandate BEFORE 31 October – AND they ALL have to be just right

April 25, 2019 8 comments

img_3013When Parliament has already voted to overrule the Executive, a Party Grandee who has been a Party Member for longer than the lifetimes of many MPs leaves to stand for a protest party, and Conservative Councillors and even MPs too are telling the media they are about to Vote against their own Party in an upcoming Election, anyone with enough sense and concern for what is going on around them would know that what is happening no longer fits with any rules they know. They would accept that following those rules is not now going to bring the situation to a close.

That our lawmakers have no real appreciation for the responsibility they have been given by the Electorate has now become painfully obvious to the People outside of Westminster.

Worse for all conservatives, whether members of the Party, tribal voters or simply lapsed, is the realisation that a horrible reality is now becoming manifest in Westminster. One where there are simply not enough Conservative MPs in the Parliamentary Party that have the understanding, stamina, wherewithal and everything that it takes to deal with a serious crisis – not one created by any external threat, but by something made manifest from within its own walls.

Those who observe and consider the steps of the journey that Brexit has taken will eventually realise that the decisions made by Theresa May and her enablers since June 2016 – right up to the 1922 Committee’s decision last evening not to put the flames out engulfing the Party that are now in open sight for all to see, have and are continuing to fuel a fire that has not only taken the Conservative Party to the edge of the precipice, but is on the verge of condemning the whole of the UK to political, if not civil chaos too.

We have reached a point where the true chronology of events that led to the Vote to Leave the European Union, the mess of the Brexit Process and the now the critical condition of our democracy too, is in imminent danger of being forgotten and responibility for all ills being laid squarely at the feet of the only Political Party genuinely capable of getting the UK through Brexit and to the promise of the opportunities that lie ahead for us all on the other side.

It is painful for many to admit that the disease within the Conservative Party may have already been allowed to spread too far. That if the majority of the MPs that are still obstructing change from within the Conservative Parliamentary Party do not put their self-interest, fear and obsession with maintaining a system that now, thanks in no small part to them no longer exists, that not only will the Party that gifted them their time in the public eye be gone, but the Country itself could be thrown into chaos and darkness of a kind that those amongst us still alive to remember the consequences of such times had long since hoped had been left behind.

People who I and many have time for and respect from right across the political spectrum, are now falling in behind Nigel Farage to support the Brexit Party.

Any serious conservative with an eye on the future and what happens next would be foolish not to read the electoral runes right at this moment in time and see what is about to happen to British Politics during the Month of May.

But whilst one of the key straplines of this very serious and credible protest party is changing politics for good, the Brexit Party only has the cohesiveness between its Membership and support provided by just one issue.

This commonality between Brexit Party supporters will evaporate the moment that the promise made to respect our democracy and Leave the EU has been made good.

In days and certainly no more than weeks, the Conservative Party has a final and defining choice to make about the part that it wants to play and can offer the British People as a choice for the future.

If the Conservative Party does not choose to take it, the Brexit Party could well become the overwhelming force in domestic British Politics that UKIP never could.

The anger, palpable amongst the British People today that could so quickly be addressed with reason and delivery, could instead be completely unleashed.

Make no mistake. A Political Party without professional governance, systems and procedures is not going to deliver the overnight change it is now promising us – even if it currently benefits from having many well known and well meaning names up front which gives it an even more credible feel.

The choice that the Conservative Party has to make is whether to do nothing and allow May to continue in a way that only she seems to know how. Or to commit to a hard-decision-laden and timely process that will require unbending commitment, coolness of character and dedication to a cause much bigger than themselves and their Party, all boiled down to the willingness to do whatever it will take to get things done.

Step 1. A NEW Leader

May MUST go.

May MUST go now.

May MUST be replaced quickly.

This is not the time for an incumbent PM to be allowed to run down the clock in an attempt to let history look more kindly upon her tenure than anyone actually does right now. It won’t.

The ridiculous infighting, self-interest and ambition that have created so much of the Brexit impasse and constipated version of Parliamentary Politics we have witnessed over the past year has to stop and be consigned to the bin.

There MUST be a practical acceptance of the reality that right now, in this climate and with our Country facing the issues that it is, that there is no such thing as the ‘best’ or ‘Perfect’ candidate to be Prime Minister. It is now all about putting the person into the role who will be best placed to get results and yes, get the job done.

Under such circumstances, there is little doubt that whilst far from a perfect situation, the Party Membership would support an immediate ‘crowning’ of a new Party Leader and de facto Prime Minister, AS LONG AS THE PARLIAMENTARY PARTY APPOINTS THE RIGHT PERSON IT HAS AVAILABLE.

As recent polling work undertaken by the Conservative Home Website has shown, which is reliable for gauging the mood of the grassroots Party, the Membership wants a Brexiteer PM in Downing Street.

By far, the PM that the Membership wants is Boris Johnson.

The lack of understanding and appreciation of what really gets results, instead replaced with private ambition and the idea that each and every Member of the Cabinet is the only one who really knows best and can be the next Prime Minister, is precisely why so much of this has gone wrong already.

Trying to control or obstruct a workable solution to these problems for personal reasons, rather than doing what’s best for everyone, no matter how challenging or distasteful or unpalatable the alternative might be, is likely to replace one bad Prime Minister with another. Not because the alternatives aren’t capable or any good at what they do. But because they cannot be the person to bring together the formula that this Country needs right now and effectively become the necessary catalyst for change and for good.

Boris is very electable, as has been demonstrated by his highly effective campaigns to become and to be re-lected London Mayor.

Yes, Boris has a propensity to look silly at inappropriate times. But he also identifies his own destiny as being closely aligned with the success of the people and the policies that he leads. And as Prime Minister he will know that he MUST surround himself with the full range of best talents and voices. To be inclusive, but to make sure that the results achieved are good for all parts of our society and not just those who are directly involved.

This is where the opportunity lies for all who can see, accept and facilitate what now needs to be done to align themselves, contribute and for their genuine ambition to do good for others to be recognised fully for the part they play in delivering for the much bigger Public cause.

2. A NEW Manifesto

No. Oddly the next step IS NOT to worry about Brexit and the EU.

For right or for wrong, we now have until Thursday 31st October 2019 to sort out the Brexit mess and to get things done.

That’s 6 Months. And with a week being a long time in politics, as long as the Conservatives get moving quickly AND do all that needs to be done, 6 Months will be plenty of time enough.

The first priority is to create, promote and engage the public with a NEW Manifesto.

A Manifesto that demonstrates:

  • That the kind of working relationship that WE ALL want with Europe can only be created and developed once we are a fully Independent and Sovereign State once again and that to do this WE MUST FULLY AND CATEGORICALLY LEAVE.
  • That the Conservative Party is NOT only the Party of the rich, but the Party of all those with aspiration. The protector and safe-guarder of all those in genuine need and all those who want to succeed as a result of genuine effort and not riding off the backs and exploitation of others. A Party which really is for ALL of us too.
  • That Politics is in fact the means and not the ends to get things done. That it is a calling, not a job and that those who gain the very special and privileged elevation to Public Office must be able, prepared and committed to engaging fully foremost and as a priority with the People that they represent.
  • That good governance of this Country can no longer be something regurgitated from history, read from a book, accepted as an established rule or contrived on the basis simply of how it will look.
  • That decisions will be taken no matter how hard, to ensure that Government delivers fully for everyone, without bias, favour and with fairness as we are all right and justified in expecting that it should.

It will not take months or years to formulate.

The Conservatives only have to look beyond themselves and begin to engage everyone in a natural conversation, without the hard sell and without falling back on statistics and analysis to confirm what being out there will soon tell them should then be a quickly changing mood.

3. A New Mandate

With a New Leader and New Manifesto, the Conservative Party then MUST go back to the People.

It MUST have the faith, confidence and guts to know that if the Party has done Steps 1 & 2 right, the People will come back and provide the Party with a New Mandate.

A New Mandate that is required not only to break the Brexit impasse that can only come from our clean-break Leaving the EU. But to deliver the change that the People now require of our politicians. So that the UK can find its place and ensure that we are all secure in an ever changing World, where the agility and flexibility that our status as an Independent and Sovereign State is the only way that we can effectively adapt as a Country to ensure that we can continually work together towards the prize of something better for all.

 

 

 

 

 

If this is how the best of the field to be PM already shapes up, we really are in trouble now

300px-Dead_man's_hand

The infamous ‘dead mans hand’. Boris or Hunt will inherit their very own version within a month. The question is will their premiership be murdered immediately, possibly by their own side, or can they step beyond expectations and everything we now see as being so very, very wrong?

Nobody should be in any doubt that Theresa May had to go. There is also little doubt that Boris – for reasons way beyond his character alone – was and is probably still the only candidate available who could facilitate a way out this political and potentially constitutional mess.

The problem is, that in his finest hour, Boris is displaying nothing fine in terms of a soon-to-be PM at all.

And it’s not like he isn’t being given the chance.

Some of us have been concerned by what looks like Boris’ regressive steps on policy to buy off Conservative MP support for many weeks.

But with the stage now reached where Conservative MPs (other than Hunt) are absolutely no further risk to his bid, he is not doing anything to say, reassure or at the very least demonstrate that he is ready to leave stupidity like ‘One Nation Conservatism’, the old politics that has now been rejected, or indeed the worst parts in May’s tenure and her management of the Brexit process behind.

We hear of the multifaceted anachronism that is ‘One Nation Conservatism’ seemingly at every turn.

Yet the People don’t want to hear about Conservatives working just for one – i.e. themselves – anymore.

We’ve been there. We’ve done that. It’s why we are in the mess that we are now in.

Then there’s this spurious idea that May’s Withdrawal Agreement, that the EU has always rigidly told us couldn’t be unpicked, can now be unpicked. Does anyone really need to say anymore?

The only way that Brexit can be solved and the doors to opportunity opened as they should be, is to ditch the whole ridiculous waste of time that was May’s travesty of a deal, go back to the People with a new Manifesto, and if necessary a formal Electoral Pact with the Brexit Party – as any true conservative leader putting the Country above self and Party surely now would not only realise, but accept and be prepared to communicate that they have to.

Yet the biggest flaw to have now become so rawly exposed, is Boris unwillingness to come clean about what most people living in the real world would have written off as a simple domestic argument.

The politics involved didn’t actually matter, because in the age of social media it’s sadly what we have become used to.

No. It’s the lack of honesty or openness and willingness to show a human side that has now left this would-be Prime Minister so perilously exposed to an ongoing trial by media that endangers not only his premiership before it begins, but also the whole Brexit cause.

Neither Hunt nor Boris could become what we might visualise as being the perfect PM.

Hunt, because he is an ardent Remainer, who like May before him will do the minimum he perceives possible to take what he believes to be some kind of middle road, keeping us fully committed to the EU, whilst crafting some kind of fix and covering message designed to lay the foundations of the argument that the Referendum Result has been honoured, but is strangely then acceptable to all involved.

Boris, because his talents and abilities were better suited to 3 years ago, when May hadn’t already set up her predecessor to fail by walking away from the table, leaving the legacy of a brexit-age dead mans hand that will only be escapable if she is replaced by a player who can rise to the very significant needs of the occasion.

Make no mistake that the situation the next Prime Minister is about to inherit will require the capability to provide not just history-making leadership, but vision, understanding, drive and a level of selflessness – unrecognisable in todays politics – that will make their tenure a worth a whole lot more.

Yet being ‘all that’ doesn’t have to be about the person, the character, the man who will be the next Prime Minister alone.

It is the actions that the next Prime Minister will take and the people they surround themselves with who advise them, that will contribute to what history will see as their own specific legacy and no more.

If neither Boris nor Hunt can face up to the reality of the situation that awaits them, the fact is that their time as Prime Minister is already a lost cause and it will be remarkably short.

Brexit will be the legacy by which they could easily become the third Prime Minister crushed by Brexit, instantly recognisable for nothing more.

To succeed, they MUST work with that very dark hand that they have been given, and accept that the leadership they will have to demonstrate is immediately about coalition, not only with Nigel Farage and the Brexit Party, but with the People and the Electorate itself. They MUST employ a vision and robustness which will look out for the interests not only for those who Voted Leave, but also for those that Voted Remain.

The alternative to doing so is simple and the direction of travel will not be a choice which either of them will have.

If they fail to recognise the direction that they sill soon have to take, we will either all suffer at the hands of a Marxist Government that wants to crush everything that encourages success and individuality for anyone and everyone. Or we will be thrust back into the hands of the EU on punitive – not just surrender terms – that will very quickly demonstrate what bad choices the Conservative Party and a series of Prime Ministers have consistently made.

 

image thanks to wikipedia

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Want a real Brexit and Corbyn kept out of No.10? – A General Election is now the only way…

images-2Coverage of the result of the Peterborough By-Election actually felt different. Maybe even a little odd. But perhaps prescient of the direction our Politics is now going – a place where there is no control or script and it all seems to be in the hands of the gods.

Within hours of this blog being published, the gurus of political interpretation will have of course broken the whole thing up and began spinning it into many different, but for them, primarily self-serving ways. However, the reality will nonetheless remain underneath it all that Politics in this Country has changed and things are never going to be the same again.

Yet the politicians refuse to see it.

They are still looking at everything coming at them through the lens of the old politics – and yes, I’m even including the Brexit Party as being one of them in this instance too.

To perhaps understand this a little better, it is important to consider the Peterborough result.

Yes, the Labour Candidate was Elected. But the Brexit Party Candidate wasn’t far behind them and it would be foolish to frame the Conservative Candidate’s 3rd place as being outside of the same room.

Somewhere, probably in London today, different conversations will be taking place around the realities of what can be gleaned from the way the vote was split.

Some of this thinking will simply be deluded. Some of it will be based on outright fear. But what will be common among all of it will be the view that the problem is outside of the Politicians, outside of their Party and that it will be something or someone else who is getting it all wrong.

With the Peterborough result for these three Political Parties and the wider Westminster Polls being dispersed between them and the Liberal Democrats as they are, you can bet that the debate will end up for many of them concluding that First Past The Post is now redundant and should be replaced by some other form of electoral system that will benefit the de facto righteousness of their position – such as PR.

What they fail to observe, or deliberately overlook and therefore do not accept, is the reason that none of them – even with Brexit involved – is offering the leadership, vision and inspiration that is necessary to formulate the public policy that the People now want and is required of our Politicians and their Parties not just for Brexit, but as we step off into a world based on A New Politics beyond.

Playing around with the Electoral System will only benefit the Political Parties and the Politicians involved.

It will sure up, consolidate and in some cases expand their presence and position.

But the upshot is that the opportunity to provide the kind of decisiveness and defining leadership that we now need in British Politics more than ever, will simply be lost.

Brexit and the future of this Country requires good leadership and the decisiveness that goes with it by the truckload. Without it the mess we are now in is set to get a whole lot worse.

What Politicians should understand from the results and polling as they are, is that no Political Party is currently capable of commanding a working majority in Parliament. Without it, neither Brexit nor anything substantial in terms of the changes to and creation of new Policy that our people now need is going to be addressed in any meaningful and lasting way. That simply has to change.

The biggest risk to Brexit and to our Democracy –  make no mistake that the two are now intricately involved – is that the new Conservative Leadership will continue onwards and go all out to enable a No Deal Exit from the EU by 31st of October – just so they can claim that they have achieved and can take ownership of that result.

If the current Parliamentary dynamic doesn’t stop them before they do so, there is a storm cloud awaiting them on the other side. Because it is there that the Remain majority in Parliament – if it has not been changed – will have an incredibly hard stick to beat the Government with, and the ability to make serious hay from the sunshine that they will see pouring over them from the inevitable problems that will follow a No Deal Brexit that has been executed in this specific way.

Taking the UK back into the EU on the turnaround of a sixpence is not something that any Political Party with designs or long term aspirations on being the natural party of government is going to want to do. Especially when the straightjacket that the UK will have no choice but to accept as part of a completely one-way and loaded bargain will inevitably become poison for whoever was to blame – irrespective of the Politicians who were actually involved.

The only way out of this problem is to recognise Party boundaries and tribal loyalties as the ties that bind all of them to a form of politics of old. The old politics that the public are telling them is not only flawed but is fundamentally wrong.

Our Politicians must come together to deliver on the issues. And the issue which is the doorway to solving all other issues is Brexit – whether our Politicians like that fact or not.

The People Voted for the UK to Leave the EU without any deal or ties. Giving them anything less will simply be wrong. This includes coming out of the EU and then going immediately back in, whilst then selling their ineptitude and lacklustre attempts at managing the Process as evidence that the whole thing was wrong.

The only Political Parties that have the ability to coagulate around the fact, reality and message that a full and proper Brexit must happen are the Brexit Party and the Conservative Party. And it is within the Conservative Party where the real struggle is still taking place, as it has been all along.

The new Conservative Prime Minister must accept and then immediately act on the fact that without a General Election and securing the Brexit MP Majority that it will give them if they ask for Public support in the right way, the future is effectively lost.

To realise and achieve the alternative, which is a real and permanent Brexit, there is no option for the Conservative Party Leadership other than to swallow their pride for the greater good and work with the Brexit Party to establish s grand Brexit Coalition.

Together they can provide that Brexit Majority and then ensure that our Brexit and the great future that follows it will for all of us be secure.

If they fail to do so, the future is very bleak. It is one that revolves around Corbyn and his Marxist tentacles reaching out and destroying everything we value from No.10.

The cost to everyone in this Country from allowing this to happen will go way beyond the destruction of the Conservative Party. It will simply be too high.

Isn’t it time the Conservative Leadership put the requirements of real Leadership first and do whatever is necessary to get the job done?

 

image thanks to unknown

Yes Tories, by all means Prorogue Parliament, just so you can say you delivered a No Deal Brexit. But understand you will take us straight back in to the EU on terms of surrender if you do

May 4I’ve been a lapsed Tory for nearly six years. Like many others, I had been hopeful that with May finally going, the Party would get it’s shit together, react properly to the messages the Public have for many months been giving them. Then deal with Brexit properly and treat it as the door opening opportunity that it actually is, so that we would then at least have an incentive to start heading to the Party that we once called home.

Incredibly, whilst those messages from the Public are not only clear but getting louder all the time, the hustings for the Conservative Leadership campaign are giving us all the wrong answers to the questions that we all have and desperately want to know.

It is becoming regrettably very clear that the mentality at the top of the Conservative Party hasn’t yet changed in any way. That with May gone, this whole charade playing out in public is simply about a return to business as usual and taking for granted that to everyone outside Westminster, a change in Prime Minister is all it will take to solve everything that is wrong.

Many of us have fallen in to the trap of thinking that the country is run by very intelligent people.

But without feeling, understanding, empathy and yes – an ear to listen to the messages telling them that something is very wrong, these pretenders to the Seat once occupied by Churchill and Thatcher might all as well be crazy lunatics. Because that’s what their evolving plans are shouting at us as we look in on them from the outside.

Brexit is of course the most pressing issue that these would-be leaders are using as the benchmark to demonstrate their steel, stamina and resolve.

But like May who has gone into the post-Referendum premiership before them, they have not learned that the days when the message was all they needed to worry about have now gone.

It’s now all about substance, delivery and the action that will be taken over the many problems facing this Country of which Brexit is merely only one that is included, that will be the measure of them.

Imagine them now, in the committee rooms, restaurants and bars of Westminster, romancing their Conservative peers with stories of how will be for them all, once they can tell the Public that Brexit has been completed. That all the problems with Farage et al will simply fade and dissolve.

“The chosen method will be an exit from the EU by the 31st October – no matter the cost. We cannot have a General Election because even Boris could lose his seat. So if we simply shut down Parliament by proroguing it, we can have this whole mess sorted and stitched up within weeks. Simples!”

The problem is that proroguing Parliament tells us all that beneath the big talk about fulfilling the Public instruction for Brexit, the would-be leaders who are planning to pursue it really have no concept of what it is they really need to change.

Shutting down Parliament might well create a process that the Conservatives can tell everyone is a clean Brexit.

But with the same numbers and biases ever present in this very same Parliament that will be there to oversee what happens immediately afterwards, you can bet that with the first sign of issues or difficulties that are certain to follow, the majority of Remainer MPs who will still be present will then have a very large stick to hit the Government with.

They will be immediately equipped with what will easily be portrayed to the Public via a receptive media as legitimate fuel to blow up anything to do with Brexit.

They will push us straight back into the arms and Membership of what will then be a completely different and unrelenting EU.

It will be the Conservative Party that will be blamed for our permanent submission to an EU dictatorship, rather than being the only Party to deliver Brexit – as is even now still  being claimed.

Carrying on with the formula of the old politics which says it’s all about ‘telling the People what they want to hear’, is the surest pathway to end our Democracy. With it the Conservative Party and British Politics will surely explode.

There is something that all of these would-be Prime Ministers need to understand and act upon, if they really want our future to be stewarded forward with conservatism at the core of the leading political side:

May’s tenure and handling of Brexit represents a car crash for both the Conservative Party and the Country as a whole. Public Trust in Politics, Democracy and conservative values have been severely injured and won’t be healed just because we have a change of Prime Minister – no matter what they are told.

The only way that the Conservative Party can come through this mess and be able to stake a claim as a Party of Government for the future is to accept and fully embrace the process required of them for change.

Accept that they cannot push through a No Deal Brexit without the Parliamentary numbers in place to see the action through, and that to achieve this they will have to create and lead a Grand Brexit Coalition, made up with the Brexit Party and any Leave/New Politics Minded MPs who see the future as being about more than tribal politics and want to get fully involved.

Respect the reality that a New manifesto must be created that has as its basis a UK for the future, where the success and failure of everyone is a key to Government responsibility, that policy will be fully considered in terms of consequence and every decision taken will be based on the benefits to everyone – not simply those who are involved.

Embrace the need to then go back to the People and secure a new and endorsing mandate, to push through to the other side of a clean and proper Brexit and begin work on materialising the promise of the opportunities and our destiny that awaits us as the result of embracing A New Politics on the other side.

Without being big enough to rise up to the occasion, this Leadership Contest is only going to deliver more mistrust, dawdling, delay and anger – which is much the same as the legacy of Theresa May.

The MP who should be Leading us as our PM when we reach the Summer, should be the one who understands and accepts that you can try and spin words and terms like One Nation Conservatism as much as you like. But A New Politics is about more than one and We expect real Leadership that focuses on direction and doing things right, rather than paying lip service to it and mitigating all risks, because their biggest motivation is based not on anything positive but their personal fright.

 

Categories: Uncategorized

The next Conservative PM will have to steer a difficult path to a ‘No Deal’ Brexit or they won’t stay in No.10 for very long

DTC Pic1Just like the question we were asked at the Ballot Box in the 2016 European Referendum, there is no halfway house when it comes to Brexit.

Once Brexit is done, the UK will have either Left the EU, or by default we Remain.

The complete mess and destruction of Parliamentary, Constitutional and Democratic processes that we have been watching from outside of the Westminster bubble for the past 3 years has proven that there is no fudge, compromise or middle pathway available.

If Democracy is to be respected, then restored, the only path that the UK can now take is to Leave the EU cleanly.

That means the UK Leaving the EU with No Deal. Without obligation to the EU or to any other Foreign Country. With our Independent and Sovereign Status as a Country fully restored.

Brexit has lifted the lid on everything dark that has been happening in British Politics for a very long time.

It has opened the door and created the circumstances where we can and are ready to step forward and not only Leave the EU. It also allows us to leave the old politics behind.

The junking of the Article 50 Process and the Hung Parliament that Theresa May ushered in has left very few options for a Government still working with the old politics.

This Government has been led by an indecisive and poor leadership team that still prioritises the security of MPs Seats at Westminster, rather than what they should be doing in all of our best interests.

If the Conservatives are to be the Party that delivers Brexit, they will first have to go back to the People and secure a majority of MPs that support Brexit.

That means a General Election this Autumn and before that, a series of steps that might well include an electoral pact with the Brexit Party in order to ensure that the next Government will finally be able to fully respect and secure the outcome of the original People’s Vote.

  1. Stop discussions or so-called negotiations with the EU. We have until 31st October before we have to go back and tell them what we are going to do.
  2. Create a new, inclusive and aspirational Manifesto. Involve everyone possible or engage people who can genuinely speak on behalf the many others to build a new platform for policy making that is about the best interests of everyone, so that we feel confident that we are witnessing the birth of A New Politics and we are sure that Government and MPs will now deliver on everything that they are supposed to.
  3. Build a Coalition based on delivering Brexit and then doing what’s right for us all Beyond. Be open to working with all Politicians who can demonstrate that they are committed to a ‘No Deal Brexit’ and will support the next Governmnet in any way that is required in order to get everything in place, address challenges responsibily and then keep driving on and through until Brexit has been secured and the work required as the basis for change thereafter has been done.
  4. Go to the People and ask them for the Mandate to deliver Brexit properly, so that we can begin to move forward and bridge the divide created by the animosity between Leave and Remain.
  5. With the Mandate secure, move clinicly and decisively to deliver a clean Brexit and then begin developing working relationships without obligation to the EU and all Countries across the whole World beyond.

With the options that this Conservative Government has open to it, this pathway is the only one they can follow if they genuinely intend to respect and implement the Brexit Vote.

Yes, there is a lot of risk to the MPs and their Parties involved.

But what they have been doing for the past three years has been all about protecting them, rather than our People, our Businesses and our Communities.

The time has come for the balance to shift and for the old politics to be stopped.

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The Brexit Party May well end up hoisted by its own petard if the UK Exits the EU BEFORE we have a General Election and a Brexit-backing majority of MPs has been secured

img_2163Beyond all the infighting and arguments over who actually won the European Referendum and how the results can be reinterpreted to suit the needs of vested interests, the Brexit Party could be getting a bit carried away with the pursuit of a 31st October EU Exit. That is unless they can accept that a fruitful outcome to this argument could have a lot of pain for them and all Brexiteers hidden in store.

Before continuing I need to make something very clear. That is I would be happy for us to be out of the EU without a deal as soon as is humanly possible.

But I also want us to stay out and remain out of the EU long enough so that both Remainers and Leavers alike can start to appreciate the benefits for everyone that will only come once Brexit is completed and secure.

Right now it feels to everyone as if Nigel Farage, his newly elected MEPs and the whole Brexit Party can write their own ticket.

But this is complacency rather than realism. And it could be the first step to ensuring that the whole Brexit project – that’s UK Independence and Sovereignty – is ultimately well and truly lost.

Farage turned his ire on the EU during a press call on Tuesday. Shouting at them that we are going on the 31st of October without a deal, and that if the EU wants better Terms with the UK, it’s up to them to come running, or sit there and count the cost.

Yes, it’s all-powerful rhetoric. And it’s already isolating all of the Conservative Leadership hopefuls bar one.

Yet what the Brexit Party and all of these Conservative Leadership Candidates have in common at this moment is a lack of appreciation that Brexit has and never has been as simple as the mere action of officially Leaving.

Brexit is terrifically complicated – in some ways on purpose I might add. And to fail to do the work necessary to counter this fact and have the right contingencies in place before we take the step out, could result in much worse for the UK than if the 2016 European Referendum on Leaving the EU had simply been lost.

The Parliamentary dynamic that exists today is going to continue to be a significant and potentially terminal problem for Brexit.

If we Leave whilst the Parliamentary Balance is significantly in favour of EU Membership rather than the UK being outside of it, these Remainer MPs will use every opportunity, every story, every fear present to ensure that the overwhelming numbers they have with the weak-willed who will then support them, will not only frustrate Brexit from the location of our short time outside of the EU. But will then be used to turn the UK around and go straight back in. This time on what will be ridiculously unfavorable terms, such as adopting the Euro and committing our Armed forces to a permanent, sitting EU Army.

This really should give every Brexiteer pause for thought.

I am aware that Farage is bigging up the chances that the Brexit Party will win big in a General Election post-Brexit.

But if a no deal Exit is fucked up by a lack of good leadership in a weak, Conservative Minority Government, combined with a Parliamentary Majority being there for Remain (or by this time Return), the public emotion will by this point have surely shifted from outrage against democratic injustice to what the perceived impact of the problems of the transition will be for the short, medium and long term. They will no longer be holding out for any hero unable to give surety to solutions in an immediate and tangible form.

It would be a mistake for any Conservative Leadership hopeful to consider this scenario and take any kind of comfort. Because the fate of the Conservative and Brexit Parties is now inextricably linked.

If Brexit should unfold this way, it will have been under your watch and your leadership. And that will mean that regardless of how strong and pertinent the warnings over Marxism and what the reality of a Corbynista Government will be, People will by then be looking for the first port in the storm and send their votes straight over to him.

Jeremy Corbyn and the henchpeople around him may well have read the political runes and this would explain why even now Labour seem unable to behave in any kind of joined-up way.

But make no mistake. If any of you would-be Brexit Leaders should succeed in pushing for or even allowing a crash out, no deal Brexit in October by apparent default, and have done so without going to the Country first, believe me when I say that Brexit blowing up in your face will be the least of your problems, because for all of us, things will be about to get a whole lot worse.

There are few who would call themselves fans of the current Conservative Party hierarchy. Conversely many will admire and respect what Nigel Farage has done.

But if the two entities don’t take a step back and see how they now need to work together and very closely, the war they are squaring up to fight – based only on Brexit alone – is not one that will be won.

The Brexit Party has the power to capture hearts and minds very widely over Brexit, but no ability to unify its followers beyond the Brexit question, with policies or indeed a party machine that can bring them all together as a credible, long-term political cause.

The Conservatives have forgotten what it is to be conservative and must embrace far-reaching and fundamental change. But they already have the structure and experience that with new thinking can bring A New Politics into being, be used as the vehicle to reunite us all and remove our divisions, then take us forward as the UK becomes an Independent Sovereign State and walks onto an entirely different world stage.

If the leadership of both Parties can now find a way to work with each other and respect that they can fill the gaping holes of each others Party structure at a time when to go forward there are simply no other options available or way they can deliver Brexit, succeed or remain involved, they CAN and WILL deliver on the Vote of the 2016 Referendum AND benefit everyone who has become involved.

None of this can be achieved without a late September or early October General Election based on Leave vs. Remain.

And to achieve the desired outcome, the Manifesto that is created must sell the benefits of Brexit as well as to promote A New Politics in order to achieve wider buy-in to win over the Voters who support the EU and Remaining with them – because to them that’s just the way that things always appear to have been done.

As Farage has proven with the success in the EU Elections in the space of just a few short weeks, a General Election Campaign can be conducted and won over the Summer, just so long as all those fighting for a real Brexit understand and accept that the political world has already changed around them and that General Elections are fought under a very different kind of sun.

 

image thanks to unknown

It may well be in the EU’s interests to let the UK crash out in October with no deal. Because without a change of Parliament, they know this Remain majority of MPs will use any panic to lever us straight back in – and strictly on the EU’s terms

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Even though we are only a few days into the phony part of the Conservative Leadership war, you would be forgiven for thinking that at least some of the growing number of Candidates would have by now indicated that they are embracing radical change.

That they are not is not only disappointing. It points to the reality that we have good reason to be concerned about a whole lot more.

I say this because none of the Candidates are proposing any kind of approach to Brexit that is going to minimise the risk from any problems likely to arise during the transition. Or more importantly, to then keep us out of the EU thereby making the decision of the people a permanent one and Brexit therefore completely secure.

Those Candidates insisting that they will go back and negotiate further concessions from the EU have no evidence to suggest that they will meet anything in Brussels, other than a TV opportunity that covers up a very thick brick wall. This has been emphasised yet again by Jean-Claude Juncker in the past 24 hours.

Then there are those Candidates insisting that deal or no deal, we will come out of the EU on the 31st of October. Yes, this is a message that plays up well to a big slice of the Brexiteer audience. But in all cases, thinking that Brexit could after this long be so very simple, is likely to be a terminal flaw.

It should be obvious to everyone that the majority of MPs in this Parliament are hell bent on stopping Brexit, and even the Remain-charmer Speaker is now rowing back on his commitment to leave the post in June.

That means that if we should crash out without a deal and apparently find ourselves Independent on All Saints Day, they will relish the opportunity to use any panic that follows as a result of the issues and challenges that will inevitably follow to do everything they can to point us back at an even more oppressive form of Membership of the EU by using fear again to point us the other way.

The EU are very clever at what they do. They already know this.

And they know that without the Parliamentary dynamic changing, all they are likely to be required to do in order to end the whole Brexit question and put the UK’s perceived intransigence to bed, is to sit tight and wait for the Remainers. Who like May in these circumstances will do all their work for them instead.

We know that the Conservative Leadership Candidates are focusing on the job they want and putting the continuation of this Conservative Government at the heart of what they are doing.

But this is not what the Country has asked them for. It smacks of the very same old politics that we are collectively telling them is now over.

They clearly all share the same expectation that avoiding a General Election before Brexit will save their Party and this is the first thing they need to change.

They must also forget the idea that they can now deliver Brexit without a Leave-led Parliamentary majority. A working majority that will be needed to weather the inevitable storm the UK will be required to sail through immediately after the date that we Leave in order to reach the blue skies and clear water that lies the other side.

A Parliamentary majority will not come solely from People voting Conservative. Or at least not before Brexit is over and done and the issue is completely settled, and the friendships that have forged the Brexit movement have moved back to their tribal homes because that battle has been won.

So the next realisation that the Conservatives must face up to and accept is that a coalition with the Brexit Party is inevitable if delivering Brexit, keeping their Seats and saving the Conservative Party is actually what they want to do. Once the penny has dropped that a Parliamentary Majority that includes them being attained BEFORE Brexit is the only way they will ever be sure that the Public will elect Brexit Party MPs.

To give Brexit the best chance of success possible, foolish ideas about controlling events that are uncontrollable must be quickly swept aside.

Party loyalty and tribalism is not going to be important for the foreseeable future.

It’s about delivery and that’s all.

And to deliver Brexit, the Conservative Leader will have to go forward with Brexiteers of all backgrounds stood by their side.

It is silliness bordering on inexcusable ignorance to believe that leaving without a deal under any circumstances on 1st November will answer all of the questions being asked of our Politicians.

Because if a no deal Brexit happens without a majority of MPs who are ready to have wax poured in their ears whilst the Prime Minister straps themselves to the mast of a true and unyielding Brexit, the whole plan will quickly get smashed up on the rocks.

And this time we really will be at the complete mercy of the EU – which is all the bureaucrats running this autocracy could pray for.

It will force us to give them all they could ever want.

 

A No Deal Brexit will only be a threat to the EU when it’s real. That’s when concessions worth more than words will come, yet none of those who would be PM show any sign that they will do what must be done

Minion BrexitBoom!!! – Apologies, I meant to say ‘Boom Soon!!!’

May fires the starting pistol (with a delayed charge) and the Conservative Leadership hopefuls have started falling over themselves to out the open secret of their career ambition and destroy the credibility of the other candidates over Brexit. As if all of them had a faultless record left anyway.

The elephant in the room is that they have all immediately and unceremoniously returned to type. And the problem with all the playground nonsense like ‘I’m best because’ is that it is not what we now need from a Political Leader.

This behaviour simply doesn’t represent the change or direction of travel towards everything that has become the prerequisite necessity from ALL our Politicians. That is if Brexit and ALL of the problems that the UK is now facing have any real chance of being resolved.

Setting out a sales pitch with what amounts to little more than a wish list that illustrates little more understanding of how to succeed at anything without a blanket of political ambiguity doesn’t help anyone. It gives no inspiration and no hope that any of these would-be Prime Ministers are ready to even attempt to grapple with the heady requirements of delivering a reasoned future for this Country in the immediate term. Never mind the aspiration we want to experience that would reassure us all that we would have the right person stewarding us through it and from then on.

The Leadership contest, or rather the appointment of our next Prime Minister should not be just about personalities.

The priority MUST be the best option for the Country.

With the restriction and limitations of having to choose a replacement for Theresa May strictly from the MPs currently available, the question we should be asking is which of these Politicians is the most likely to have what it takes to make progress where May either couldn’t or wouldn’t, and then take the steps necessary to begin getting things done.

Regrettably the early signs are far from good.

Cross-the-board talk of renegotiating May’s Withdrawal Agreement, despite the EU making clear that there is no renegotiation to be had, might fuel the collective delusion that a Brexit that works for everyone can be delivered without the need to call a General Election.

But this is an approach that will quickly prove meaningless. It is a waste of time. It is highly dangerous. Above all, it demonstrates that none of the Candidates think there is any issue management required of them beyond the act of actually Leaving the EU itself when they can get up on a podium somewhere and declare ‘there we are – we have left!’.

A new Prime Minister pursuing this approach will crash and burn. Just like Theresa May.

All this nonsense and lack of direction towards embracing change tells everyone outside Westminster that the Tories are still stuck with the same ideas. They are fearful for their positions and are in no way ready to embrace the different approach to politics that everything and everyone outside of their bubble is telling them that they now should.

These who would lead are not taking the opportunity to demonstrate that they have vision and wherewithal enough to look at and consider the terrain beyond the immediate horizon.

They are looking at precisely the wrong fault-lines within the whole Brexit process and falling into the trap of thinking the only impediment to getting the mythical deal that would be acceptable to everyone was the approach taken by Mrs May.

The reality is that May’s tenure was a key part of the problem. But May’s time in Office was also symptomatic of the many problems and deficiencies with the approach of successive Governments to the whole Brexit process and to our relationship with the EU.

The fundamental flaw to dealing with the EU over Brexit has been the failure to recognise and accept the reality that you cannot ever negotiate effectively when you are looking backwards.

Yet this what May and the Remainers in Parliament have been doing and yes, the Brexiteer Candidates are now trying to do with their approach to what they will do after winning the Conservative Party Leadership.

The problem with it is that it is exactly what gutless and self-serving Politicians have been doing all along.

The only way that the Brexit can be delivered that will honour the Referendum and Vote properly and then bring all sides back together is the one that steps off from No Deal.

It is little more than laziness at best and poor leadership at worst to think that having No Deal as the aim or in reality just a threat, is the way that meaningful concessions leading to a fair relationship with the EU will be won.

May began her tenure by thinking the same way that most of those who want to be her successor are indicating they are today. That’s heading into the situation paying lip service to No Deal and framing it as being a realistic outcome. But behind closed doors behaving very differently and having a deal agreed before anything happens as the aim.

A deal means compromise and compromise is an option that MPs don’t actually have.

Compromise will always end up with obligations to the EU and rule taking of some sort. Because the very nature of a deal dictates that you have to give or put something on the table, when and if its the only route to getting the result that you otherwise wouldn’t have.

Our departure is and never was dependent upon us striking a deal with the EU that would allow us to Leave.

Leaving the EU only once a deal has been agreed wasn’t an option on the Referendum Ballot Paper.

Our Politicians have invented this outcome as the answer to the leading question they would have liked, but in fact we were never asked.

The relationship that we will have with the EU after Brexit is not dependent upon striking a deal of any kind before we have Left.

As it is now very clear that May wasted the opportunity to negotiate effectively with the EU, we can only achieve a sensible, reasoned and fair dynamic to trade and to our future relationship with the other EU Countries if we begin that discussion once we are actually out.

We MUST be looking forward to the future and have the strength and advantage that will only come from being an Independent and Sovereign Nation once again.

The Independent Status of the UK at that very moment is essential for negotiating a working relationship that is fair to us all.

It will be about a relationship, not a deal. Yes, we will almost certainly have time-defined contracts as part of that relationship that will be based on true partnership. But without being outside of the EU already, thats an option that we will simply never have.

The only priority for a new Prime Minister should be getting the UK out of the EU as quickly as possible, whilst putting all the necessary building blocks and resources in place to ensure that once we Leave the EU we will not immediately be turning around to go back.

With Brexit done properly, our PM will convince us that we are only going to look forward, even at those moments when some might be tempted to look back at the phoney safe harbour of the EU and use the siren call of transitioning back to our state of independence to smash Our Exit on the rocks.

For us to be confident in them, they must believe and convince us of the belief that together, we can weather any storm and and that they are also ready to embrace each and every opportunity for the future that would not be open to us if we had been tied to the EU by any deal, with costly obligations to outside Country continuing to be the norm.

Promising that we will simply leave the EU without a deal on 31st October sounds appealing and as if it is the right direction to take.

But it is too risky to undertake deliberately on the part of any serious Candidate, if there is the genuine desire to make Brexit permanent. Because the majority of MPs in this current Parliament will do whatever it takes to keep us within or then return us to the shackles of the EU.

Without preparing the ground, the weeds choking the Brexit seedbed are just going to carry on shutting out the daylight to our post-Brexit freedom until their own cause wins and the UK Remaining shackled to the EU is the result that comes out from the other side of this storm.

There is no option for a Leader taking delivering Brexit seriously to avoid calling a General Election in the Autumn.

Before doing so they must take every step necessary to demonstrate that they and the Conservative Party are embracing A New Politics and are ready to live and breathe a very new kind of Manifesto, dripping with change. One that inspires and builds confidence with ambition for everyone right across our Nation. And it will have UK PLC as the primary cause.

To do this means that the time of Politicians putting the electability of their Party or the security of their own seat in Parliament is over.

The new Conservative Prime Minister must accept that their role as a Representative of the People is about something much bigger and that sometimes they must be open to the possibility of their own or their Party’s loss.

That might well necessitate building a coalition based on the delivery of outcomes and not compromise or job security, so that they can then do what’s right for the Country and everyone.

Only then will they have a true legacy that they can always know is theirs to own.

A real Brexit is coming one way or the other and it will start with a true No Deal at its root.

For the new Conservative Leader the only alternative of options available will be to step up and do all that is necessary to win both Our Brexit AND the Peace. Or to continue with all the talk and just delay Brexit even further as they finish off their Party as an electoral force.

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