During a meeting about a month ago, I was asked what I thought the outcome of the coming General Election would be.
What I said, as I began my response, was that I think it unlikely that the General Election will turn out how anyone is expecting it to be.
I said I thought that the result would probably be a lot closer than the polls suggest and there was unlikely to be the Labour landslide currently expected. That Reform’s performance would depend upon whether or not Nigel Farage comes into play, and despite the rhetoric, they wouldn’t be forming a government anytime soon.
However, I also added that with the current terrain, Reform could certainly pick up 10 seats or enough to place them in a role, not unlike that which the DUP played where they became power brokers after the 2017 General Election debacle called by then Conservative prime minister Theresa May.
After the results of the Kingswood and Wellingborough by-elections this week, and an ongoing series of Tory blunders that emphasise just how out of touch with real life the ruling party has become, I’m not sure that I continue to see the possibilities in quite the same way.
What I do see the same is the offering that all of the political parties that appear on the current U.K. political route map provide us, as the choice of direction we will be taken by public policies, should any one of them win an overall majority.
With the neoliberal orthodoxy that ALL of them appear to have embraced, the paths they follow will remain closely tied to the same ‘growth’ myth.
Shared between them exists a slavish belief that to survive they must increase the amount of money in circulation. Whilst doing so often unwittingly means they shackle themselves to the ideas and direction of people with too much money and influence, who regularly hang out in Swiss resorts.
People who have nothing in common with the masses but nonetheless believe they have a god given right to rule.
Yes. Labour, the currently out-of-the picture Lib Dems and the apparently now electorally-explosive Reform all appear committed to the same economic and therefore political ideologies that under the Tories have been hurting everyone who cannot profit from what they appear determined to inflict upon us all.
However, that’s only what it would be well reasoned to expect, IF any one of the political parties running at the General Election is able to secure a working majority.
Any Party heading for government will need a good working majority in parliament to stop everyone else saying no to everything and being able to create a log jam. Just as we saw over a period of years from 2016 when so many MPs decided that it would simply be ok to resist anything to do with Brexit.
Sameness is not Oneness. And politicians are only one in the sense that they have doing everything wrong, or rather doing everything the same in common
We have very high expectations of the people we elect. Not because we pay attention and reach conclusions of whether they are fit and proper persons to be public representatives. But because that’s what we’ve been taught to think.
We quite literally have an inbuilt system of deference, to anyone with a platform or a position of public responsibility.
As such, we are all trusting the wrong people and getting our relationship with politics and the establishment completely wrong.
In the absence of a political alternative that really is akin to None of the Above, this means that we remain on a downward spiral of trusting whoever is next on the list. No matter what track record they have for doing all the wrong things, or what is really hidden behind all the talk and stories that sound very much like everything we need to hear about who we are about to vote for, right now.
The most likely outcomes (Please note, there really could be more!)
As I write this blog in the middle of February 2024, it looks increasingly likely that the next General Election could be called and held as early as the beginning of May.
After that, October or November is most likely. But in terms of the longest this Parliament can survive until the next vote must be held, the Tories have until the last week of January 2025 if they really want to drag the last remnants of what is left of their time in power out to the very end.
Whilst the polls look very bleak for the Tories – and the results of those two by-elections certainly make it sound like they will be proven to be right, it’s the unexpected problems and unforeseen events that could unfold within the coming months that could really blow the outcome apart.
The end result when the General Election comes, could easily look very different to how it is expected to be now.
The biggest problem for all the politicians that we have is that politics for them is all about the politics, being in politics and having power in politics.
The rest is just talk. None of it is about public representation. Which is what democracy and the process that facilitate democracy should always be about.
This basically means that no matter what promises any of the parties make to us as voters, when the results of the next General Election are in, what the politicians who made those promises will be able to do will come down to a range of different things that include:
- Whether they actually have a working majority that means that they can push the public policies they have promised that are actually possible through parliament
- Whether the outcomes that they have promised are actually achievable, given that most areas of public policy either effect or are affected by many different and complex things.
- Whether they have the will to do anything that could make them look bad in any way – which is where the political will to achieve anything meaningful with policy usually ends.
- What the policy requirements would be as a trade off with any coalitions partners, if they cannot achieve a working majority in any way
- Whether they can print enough money to be able to buy off everyone with quick fixes and the white elephants which has become the standard way that recent generations of politicians have managed to get around, ignore or pretend that they don’t need to consider any of the above.
Once we can appreciate the absurdity of this list in itself, it’s probably best to then consider how anything could happen and how the result of the General Election could play out, once the votes have been counted.
An outright Labour victory
Ok, so let’s go with what most people thinking about politics today are banking on, which will be an outright Labour victory, with a 1997 Blair-level landslide majority. All under the leadership of Keir Starmer.
Labour have historically been the pioneers of the “money solves all problems’ approach to government. It’s a flawed principle that has only ever temporarily been sustained – If you can even call it that.
The odd thing is that whilst the ‘let’s splash it on the masses’ and wealth redistribution approach to public representation arguably has morality built in for anyone who still believes that money is actually real, it’s a way of managing money that has become more and more aligned with the inherent need for growth that forms the core Neoliberal government myth.
Indeed, ‘growth’ has been an increasingly used mantra in politics, ever since the real genie was let out of the bottle, when under Richard Nixon, the US did away with the gold standard and the FIAT monetary system was shoehorned in from 1971.
For those new to neoliberal economics, the system hinges on government and the banks, and financiers they dance with, being able to print money at will. Allowing corporations and big money to run riot with few or no regulations, so that they can keep generating money. The public sector then measuring everything that is judged to have an economic output, so that the overall figure each year – known as GDP, can be used to hide growing debt and the financial deviance within the whole system.
The big problem that Labour now has, is that with the quality of politicians on all sides having now reached an arguably all time low, the Tories who have been in power as Brexit, Covid and the war in Ukraine have passed by, have responded to problems that should have been fixed by good public policies and genuine leadership, by spending so much created money, that the time left between now and when the wealth divide has grown so wide that the system collapses, means that the opportunity for a post election free for all has pretty much already been had.
Hence the recent shouting about ‘salting the earth’.
A Conservative majority (Now VERY unlikely. But not impossible by any means)
However implausible it might seem, there is, even now, the chance of a Conservative working majority at the next General Election. For no better reason than we are journeying through such uncertain times.
A change in leader, perhaps to Nigel Farage or even bringing back Boris Johnson, could disrupt absolutely everything and help lots of people to experience overnight amnesia. IF the Tories were to do something about Rishi Sunak’s tenure now.
The reality, however, is that the best that the Tories can hope for, as things currently stand, is Labour managing to do something which reminds people that they could be about to vote for a party that is not in any way different to the one that we have in power now.
Just take a very quick look at the Labour Party debacle underway with their candidate in the run up to the By-election that’s coming on 29th of February.
The numbers from last weeks two by elections could easily be read as Labour voters coming out to vote in the same or similar number to the General Election of December 2019, when Boris Johnson gained an impressive 80 Seat Majority. Whilst the people who voted Conservative then, have this week mostly stayed at home.
It’s not impossible that on the day of a General Election, many more of them will hold their nose and come out to vote.
A Liberal Democrat majority
Anything could happen. But as things stand, with the Liberal Democrats appearing to be currently off the political map, a turn around that would take masses of seats from both Labour and the Conservatives, of the scale that any third Party would need to achieve an overall majority that wasn’t Tory or Labour, would be extraordinary indeed.
However, it would be surprising if the Lib Dems didn’t have a good showing when the General Election comes. And the prospect that they could play a big role in a Labour-led Rainbow Coalition is one that could be very real indeed.
The big question for the Lib Dems, should they experience a revival in fortunes, is what it will take for them to go into coalition as they did under the leadership of Nick Clegg in 2010 with Tory Leader David Cameron as Prime Minister. When in 2015, the electorate arguably rightly, treated them as if they had completely sold-out…
A Reform majority
Richard Tice, the current Reform Party Leader, may believe and have gone on the record to suggest that his ascendency and rise to the position of UK Prime Minister could just be a matter of time. However, the one thing that we can be sure of – unless there really is some kind of imminent Black Swan event, is that when the result of the next general Election is in, Tice (Or more likely Farage) could have the role of Kingmaker. But neither of them will become the next PM.
Whilst Reform have scored results in the two by-elections that suggest they are ‘on their way’, the more that they become an electoral risk or threat to the three establishment political parties, the more questions are going to be asked about who Reform really are and who they really represent.
Little is said about the real history and political genealogy of Reform. Yet the fact remains that this is a political party constructed from the ashes of the Brexit Party, UKIP and The Anti-Federalist League that came before and evolved into all of it too.
The rich irony is that as the Brexit Party became Reform and has worked hard to leave the anti-European Union focus behind, building policies that take a more generalist theme, the language they have embraced and the affiliation with neoliberalism and free markets they have adopted has more in common with the EU and the scion of globalisation that it was, rather than the messed up and never completed version of ‘Brexit’ that we haven’t ever really had.
Indeed, it could be said that Reform is either just another set of wannabe imposters who will say whatever it takes to get elected, not unlike the Tories, Labour and the Libe Dems before. Or the real agenda at play is about gaining power, just so that they too can facilitate the dying globalist agenda, just doing it differently and with them feeling like its something that will work better for everyone, if it’s them in control.
A Labour led ‘rainbow’ coalition
The funny thing about the 1997 Blair majority and the period running up to the General Election that gave it to ‘New’ Labour, was that for months before the Election that early May, you could genuinely feel that the coming change was inevitable. The only question that remained uncertain was ‘By how much?’
No matter what the polls say, it really doesn’t feel that way now.
Whilst a Labour majority is certainly possible – and it could be a sizable one too, the strength of the uncertainly and the long list of variables at work, along with not knowing when the General Election will actually come, lead me to wonder if a Labour-led ‘Rainbow Coalition’ – which will be a government made up of all the left-leaning Political Parties, is a more likely outcome.
With a fleeting or arguably non-existent respect for democracy and democratic process that this whole political class now has, I’m afraid that the cost of what will be required to buy off the support necessary to create a political structure that could run as a government, even temporarily, would for us, as voters, likely come at an incredibly high price.
The biggest price that any ‘Kingmaker’ could exact as a price of giving Labour and Kier Starmer the keys to No. 10, will be the same as it will be for Reform in the next section.
The one that will give them all more power in the future: Electoral Reform.
A power broking arrangement with the balance of power in the hands of Reform
If I were going to make a bet on anything as we look ahead to the next General Election with the political terrain as it is today, it would be that as things stand, Nigel Farage will be back, in the mix. And if Nigel Farage stands for Reform or for the Tories, this will be the General Election when his influence will really come into play.
To be fair, the chance of a Tory Party that replaces Rishi Sunak with Nigel Farage as a leader ‘Peer’ (which is much the same as what they would now need to do with Boris Johnson if they were to bring him back into that role, this side of the Election) – is pretty remote indeed. Not least of all as there are already at least four different names of very ambitious and well supported Tory Politicians who believe that their name is top on the list of Conservatives that will next hold the keys to the No.10 Downing Street door.
Leading Reform is a different matter.
If Reform under Tice can already reach 13% in a By-election result, as they did last week, the polling bounce that would surely come with Nigel Farage at the helm, could certainly push those percentages up to a level where they could pick up a few seats.
Perhaps that would be as many as any would be Kingmaker with his eye on the prize of future elections would need, to negotiate a straightforward switch from the current electoral system of First Past The Post (FPTP) to Proportional Representation (PR) as the price a desperate would-be PM will pay as he hovers on the doorstep of No.10. A result that would mean the smallest and typically third, fourth or fifth placed parties in an FPTP race where they never gain seats, would then become a permanent presence after any election thereafter.
The true cost of uncertainty, lack of accountability and the absence of good leadership
Minded that this blog has already become a lot longer than the 1000 words I had expected, I will leave the detailed discussion of everything that is wrong with the politicians to all the material that I have published elsewhere. However, these are the things that we all should bear in mind:
- PR isn’t doesn’t change the politics, the ideas or the mismanagement of the politicians. It just means even more people with ideas that the majority of us don’t identify with, will be guaranteed a platform and therefore a disproportionate level and influence and media voice.
- FPTP would always be the most democratic way to elect politicians, IF the politicians are actually there to represent the best interests of the electorate and the voters who elected them – which nowadays, they really do not.
- The UK (and much of the Western World) is already bankrupt; paying bills with created or arguably pretend money, and running financial systems that are basically on borrowed time. (That is why the are so keen to create new devices such as CBDCs that will allow them to create more ways to hide the massive fractures in the system – whilst giving current leaders the benefit of many more lies that will at the very least secure them more time.
- Public Representatives are elected to become the legislators who hold their seats and the offices that they are then given, so that they can legislate on our behalf. MPs of the quality we have and with the motivations and ambitions that they all have today, either cannot or will not use legislation to change life for the better, by addressing and putting restrictions around the way that businesses and money works, just to stop problems from growing which in their most simple terms relate to what we recognise as greed. Many of the problems that the UK (and the World) faces today, could be stopped tomorrow, IF the politicians we elect would grow a set and do all the things that they are supposed to do!
There isn’t time to provide an alternative to everything that is wrong with the political choices or options that we have before the next General Election comes. Which as I say, could be as early as the beginning of May.
Without there being either that option, or a massive change in the way that some or all of our politicians, and those who are MPs after that election comes then think, the problems that we are experiencing now will only continue and, in all likelihood, continue to get much worse.